Yeah.. very odd that Team RR had bad polling days this week during the work week.
Even the Daily Tracking poll by UnskewedPolls has shown a real tightening this week. It went from Team RR being +12 to just +3 in one day (of course, now that does speak negatively to their sampling to have such wild swings!)
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm
Still alot of time, debates and who knows what is going to happen in middle east and economics news is continue to be bad..
Oh. Boy.
48 + 46 + 3 + 4 = 101....not 100%
Which one of those numbers is improperly rounded up?
Not looking good for Romney, Obama is within a point of 50%, and this is from the Pollster we trust the most.
Depressing.
It is really hard to believe that there are that many stupid people in this country. But the fact is, that so many people still get their news via the lamestream press - or just aren’t paying attention - so they don’t know the myriad ways we are getting screwed. I keep remembering Franklin’s words - “...a Republic, if you can keep it.” If these polls are true, there are a hell of a lot of people who don’t care if we keep it.
As far as we know, Raz is using a D+2 Party ID weighting and a R+4 lead for Romney with independents. Without doing the math and assuming that the Dem voters vote D in the same proportion as GOP voters vote R, one would expect the average Obama lead in his polls to be between 1 and 2 percent.
Sound familiar?
Absentee ballots are waaaay down for dems according to Rush. Enthusiasm on the left is low. I see a 2010 all over again.
Rasmussen polls are volatile. Leads change very often and quickly. Romney will be at the lead soon.
Who won the independents on this and someone else posted that it was a tie as far as the swing states
Folks, the margin of error is +/-3%. This means in statistical terms an O45 R47 poll is same as O47 R45.
We freepers really need a stat 101 course.
If someone can verify something I saw a few weeks ago I’d appreciate it. Rasmussen himself gave a statistic that really nullifies this poll, and decimates the other highly skewed polls: Voter Registration at the end of August this year has a clear Republican advantage of 4%. I’d read that in 2010 the Republican advantage was 1.3% and it was pure devastation for Democrats at every level - national and state. If that 4% advantage to Republicans in party voter registration is true, then none of these polls showing anything like an Obama advantage can be taken too seriously.
All of the hand wringing on here is depressing.....
All is lost! Woe is me! Mitt is toast! Might as well shut down FR now and we can all just huddle in our bomb shelters, not to come out until the election is over.
Many need to stop over-analyzing. This is not a major difference from the Ras polls from the past 3 days. Allowing daily fluctuations of 1-2 points rule your mood and heart rate will send you to the grave before Nov 6. Simply put, the media will not allow Romney to generate any polling momentum. It is their primary mission, and they have multiple plays in their play book to accomplish it. So gird yourself for 37 more days of polling angst.
According to American Life Panel, the last few days shows more people shifting support from Obama to Romney than vice versa.
The mantra of “are you really going to vote for the same people who got us into this mess” didn’t exactly work too well for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms. And I don’t believe that Clinton’s mantra of “nobody could have fixed this mess in four years, not even me” will work any better in the 2012 election.
About two months after the 2010 midterms, I was visiting with my Aunt in Maryland when my Uncle passed away. She’s a loyal Democrat in her 70’s, and she didn’t know that I was a Conservative (my parents are Liberals, so she assumed I was too). She told me in a very worried tone of voice that if the economy didn’t turn around, then Obama would be a one termer.
She was obviously shaken by the fact that the GOP did so well in the midterms. She wasn’t angrily saying “Did people expect him to fix this mess in two years?” She accepted that the midterm results were a reaction to the fact that Obama did not improve things at all during the first half of his term, and that he was now in real trouble.
My point is that I don’t believe that middle of the road Democrats, in their heart of hearts, think Obama deserves a pass on the lousy job he’s done. These people had really high hopes for him, they expected results, they wanted his ability to get things done to match his ability to make good speeches.
Now all they’re left with is “well, maybe nobody could have fixed this mess in four years”. But do they really believe that? I don’t think so, and I think they’ll be voting for him strictly out of party loyalty, not because they think he deserves to be re-elected.
My Aunt’s lament is consistent with the lack of Obama yard signs, the small crowds he’s drawing, and the fact that he had to move his acceptance speech to a smaller venue. The enthusiasm just isn’t there, and all this MSM spin is designed to energize people like my Aunt as much as it’s designed to depress our side.
I’m not buying it.