Of all the number-crunching analysts, I trust Jay Cost. I remember him from the 2000 (or 2004?) election prelude and he was just starting out. I followed his analysis a lot back then. He’s got quite big in the conservative blog world now. This is good because he seems dependable. He can get the word about the OH data coming in, because it blows away the assumptions of the polls.
Yes, he made his bones in 04, really didn’t have much to say in 06 or 08, and now is back to his number crunching strength. BTW, isn’t it interesting.that a week after we start discussing this, everyone else picks it up?