Then there you go. Unfathomable why these idiot pollsters can’t look at the R/D splits. Have you looked at this spreadsheet? Galactic Overlord-In-Chief suggested we look at Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Williams, Wood counties, where Bush hit 60% in 04, and where McCain had a 5% dropoff in 08. These are all back to 04 numbers, some above, although some of the numbers are small.
If you go to this link on David Leip’s website and wave your mouse arrow over the “Swing” button, it shows how far Ohio’s counties have swung Democrat from 2004. As you’ll see, the swing in NW Ohio was the biggest, so a strong GOP return from there will likely mean O is cooked.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=39&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Thanks for the links. Some of the absentee counts are very low, but I did find a few that were interesting.
Williams County: Rs up 36%-11% with 1472 ballots requested. That county’s on the Ohio/Indiana border and had one of the steepest dropoffs from Bush to McCain. In 04, it gave 65% to Bush, but in 08, it plunged to just 54% for McCain. This is one of the NW Ohio counties I mentioned earlier. I’m guessing this is historical GOP territory that swings when the economy gets sour, kind of like NE Indiana is.
1,472 ballots for a county that cast 18,396 votes in 08 is nothing to sneeze at. I’m sure more will be coming, but it’s substantial compared to the other absentee numbers we’re seeing.
I’ve also noticed the absentees from Licking County. Bush: 62%, McCain: 57%. This county looks like part of the outer suburban ring of Columbus. Licking has 11,616 requests so far, compared to 29,208 in 08. In 08, Rs had a 0.37% advantage over Ds. Right now, they have a 15.85% advantage over Ds. And there are similar large spikes in Union and Pickaway counties, also part of Columbus metro, where it looks like about a fourth of the 08 absentee totals have come in so far.
This trend would seem to confirm the GOP lead in Franklin County (city of Columbus) so far. I wish the site had the absentees for Franklin in 08, because that would be really telling. I don’t expect Romney to actually carry Franklin (I think only Portman actually won it in 2010 among the GOP statewide winners) but he doesn’t have to. He just has to hold his loss to single digits. (I suspect Obama’s inflated 59% was largely due to the “yuts” from the university and higher black turnout. By contrast, Kerry got 54% and Strickland in 2010 got 53%)
Granted, this could change, but as each day passes, Dems would have to make up an increasing number of the remaining absentees to turn it around, and then they would have to make up a huge number of the voters on Election Day. In other words, Obama would need a huge “hidden vote” to propel him to victory. Given all the anecdotal evidence I’ve been reading of much fewer Obama signs out there, it must be hidden indeed!