Here is what it comes down to IMO. If Obama can get the same turnout from the base as 2008 then he’s no worse than tied nationally and probably ahead in the swing states. I don’t see how there could be a wipeout unless the polls are clearly over estimating the Dem base turnout. We won’t know if that’s the case until election day, but the Dems have a good GOTV operation.
Wipeout because the enthusiasm is substantially down amongst all of Obama’s voter groups. If Obama was so much more ahead why even bother campaigning. He can play gold all day long if he has it so much in the bag. He is not is he? why is he cramming so many fundraisers if he is doing so well? Why is he having trouble raising money if he is doing so well. the facts point to a wipeout. The pollsters including Raz are fearful. I can imagine the unreported attacks Raz is experiencing for even polling a little different thean the Kool-aide drinkers.