www.unskewedpolls.com has Romney up 7.8%
GilGil,
Yeah. I have been following that site quite closely. Ultimately it comes down to turnout. Will we be R+2, R=D, D+2 or D+7 (as the media is taking for granted).
If we are at R+2, R+0, D+2, we will win hands down (300+ EVs)
If we are at D+7, then it will come down to a few states (OH, FL, VA, IA, WI, NH, NV, CO)
However, this actually encourges me that even with a D+7 model, Team RR has a fighting chance to win!!
Are they using an even R-to-D turnout model?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this takes all polls and re-works them to use Ras' party identification (R+4), and re-applies the stats.
I realize that all of the polls are off, but I'd be cautious in assuming everyone else is wrong and Ras is right. My guess is D+2.
Back in '00, I would watch all of the polls closely, and even though all polls showed an even election, or Gore was slightly ahead, Ras (portraitofamerica.com) had Bush winning by 8!.. He had egg on his face, and shut down that site
I know he's gotten much better, and is one of the most reliable pollsters out there... but if he says it's even, don't know how anyone can think Romney is up this much