I think the "turnout model" for this election is going to be very different from any that the pollsters are using. This is the first time in my lifetime we're going to have a lot of hopeless people who think neither party can fix the nation's problems. I think it's going to be a "base" election, with enthusiasm only in the base of each party, and depressed turnout among "independent" and "swing" voters. Unfortunately, Obama's base has been getting the exact radical policy they wanted, and now even more with promises of tax increases and same-sex marriage. The Republican base has an enthusiastic ABO segment for sure, but they don't have a candidate that has a positive message that excites them. Hence that's why Obama is the likely winner in my opinion. He's going to turn out more of his base than the Republicans and win.
It's all about turnout ~ and both parties can turn out enough voters to win any election ~
HENCE, there is no turnout model at all ~ but we do have a phenomenon that creates concern all over the place, and actually fear and loathing in some quarters. That phenomenon is the declining popularity of both major party candidates.
For Obamugabe that drop has been occurring for the last 2 years. For Romney it happened during the debates where he squandered quite a bit of good will, and then during the early primaries where he squandered even more good will by appearing to be oblivious to gross campaigning irregularities by his confederates in the state parties (Virginia in particular).
Usually by the time you work your way through a party nominating convention most of that is out of the way and the game is on to raise your own candidate's popularity.
Now with Obamugabe there's not much he can do about loss of popularity at this late date but his campaign is not doing much to STOP THE LOSS. With Romney he's on his way to California ~ and I am waiting for him to start his campaign. Early voting has begun!
It is depressing to see them hold a presidential campaign and no one attend.