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Rasmussen and Gallup do survey’s of party affiliation, The last Ras party affiliation done in Aug had +4.3%R, Gallup Sept # (after the rat convention) is R +1.23.

Ras’s history is here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

The polls mostly reflect the 2008 Turn Out model, which is why they sample +6-10% D, Ras’s numbers fro 2008 were +7.6D highest he ever measured.

Does anyone believe the rat voters are more enthusiastic than 2008? That is what all the major polls are assuming.

Even Rasmussen and Gallup are using a +2-3% D turnout model.

This guy has a terrific website where he ‘rebalances’ the polls to reflect the party affiliation numbers. The results are remarkable.

Of the 7 ‘major’ polls this past week the rebalanced polls show Romney anywhere from 50.06-50.37%, and Obama anywhere from 45.92-46.13%. This is a remarkably tight spread.

The average of these polls is Romney 50.33%, Obama 46.23, with 3.44% undecided. let’s say Romney get ~60% of the undecideds you end up with Romney 52.4 and Obama 47.6 a 4 pt Romney win. This comes pretty close to the economic model prediction from the Univ of Colorado.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

They Project Romney 52.9, Obama 47.1

What this tells us is that:

THE ONLY DIFFERENCE AMONG ALL THESE POLLS IS THE TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMED BY THE POLLSTER!!!!!!!!

Please understand the game here folks. Knowledge is power. The media polls are IMO a misinformation campaign to discourage conservatives.

Romney doesn’t have to blow away Obama in the debate. He just needs to not disqualify himself as an acceptable alternative to the failed Bozo.

This election is all about Obama’s failed presidency.

Note these analysis don’t factor in the 1% that will go to third party candidates.