Posted on 09/22/2012 6:34:01 AM PDT by tatown
“Yet liars like PEW have Obama up by 8. Disgusting”
Moreover, the poll aggregators like Real Clear Politics include all of the dishonest, Dem-over-sampled polls, which skews the averages that the media love to quote.
‘The debates will be decisive. Romney will mop the floor with Obama and it will be on full display for all to see.’
i truly hope you are right; however, regardless of what Romney may say or do, the MSM will gush about BO’s responses and tear into anything Romney may say. Additionally, i can guarantee that the questions asked by the “moderator”/host will be gotcha questions related to something Romney has said in the past that the MSM felt has hurt him. Hopefully, if that happens, he will use that as an opportunity to clarify his position.
don't you just wish you could SLAP those fools/idiots all.
It looks that the one massively good day Obama had in the sample this week was statistical noise, not a new trend
Keep in mind the Media is going to do everything they can to spin the Debates as an Obama win. They are going to rush out and manufacture polls to show Obama won. What the media says about the Debates has all ready been decided.
People need to keep that in mind going in.
No it not. The same racial politics that got Obama elected are in play here. Obama has a certain segment of the vote locked up because they use their emotions, not their reason, to decide things.
Please note Rassmussen’s last VA poll was from 09-14-2012 right in the midst of Obama post Convention 09-11 anniversary bounce. I suspect Obama numbers are not nearly as good right now in VA
Yep and I think it comes off tomorrow.
Spot on, plus don't forget about the Catholic/Evangelical vote. Obama won the Catholic vote in '08 (don't ask me how) but I don't see that happening again. His war on Catholics will, ahem, come home to roost. Also in '08 Obama picked up 5% of the Evangelical vote, but I also look for that number to drop.
There are other voting blocs Obama won soundly in '08 (Blacks, Jews) and he will again, but I believe in smaller numbers. That doesn't mean those not voting for him this time around will vote for Romney, they just won't vote. In essence, that's a vote for us.
Rasmussen and Gallup do survey’s of party affiliation, The last Ras party affiliation done in Aug had +4.3%R, Gallup Sept # (after the rat convention) is R +1.23.
Ras’s history is here:
The polls mostly reflect the 2008 Turn Out model, which is why they sample +6-10% D, Ras’s numbers fro 2008 were +7.6D highest he ever measured.
Does anyone believe the rat voters are more enthusiastic than 2008? That is what all the major polls are assuming.
Even Rasmussen and Gallup are using a +2-3% D turnout model.
This guy has a terrific website where he ‘rebalances’ the polls to reflect the party affiliation numbers. The results are remarkable.
Of the 7 ‘major’ polls this past week the rebalanced polls show Romney anywhere from 50.06-50.37%, and Obama anywhere from 45.92-46.13%. This is a remarkably tight spread.
The average of these polls is Romney 50.33%, Obama 46.23, with 3.44% undecided. let’s say Romney get ~60% of the undecideds you end up with Romney 52.4 and Obama 47.6 a 4 pt Romney win. This comes pretty close to the economic model prediction from the Univ of Colorado.
They Project Romney 52.9, Obama 47.1
What this tells us is that:
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE AMONG ALL THESE POLLS IS THE TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMED BY THE POLLSTER!!!!!!!!
Please understand the game here folks. Knowledge is power. The media polls are IMO a misinformation campaign to discourage conservatives.
Romney doesn’t have to blow away Obama in the debate. He just needs to not disqualify himself as an acceptable alternative to the failed Bozo.
This election is all about Obama’s failed presidency.
Note these analysis don’t factor in the 1% that will go to third party candidates.
BTW the CBS NYT and CNN polls from earlier this week fell in the same range when adjusted!!
I think Obama will perform well in the debates. He’ll lie through his teeth, bu the media will cover for him. I hope Romney is prepared.
I’ve never seen Obama perform well at anything unless he has a telepromter sitting in front of him. A lot of ummm’s, uhhhh’s, you know’s, and b-b-b-b-buts... Romney is going to clean his clock and Obama’s minions know it.
[This guy has a terrific website where he ‘rebalances’ the polls to reflect the party affiliation numbers. The results are remarkable.
Of the 7 ‘major’ polls this past week the rebalanced polls show Romney anywhere from 50.06-50.37%, and Obama anywhere from 45.92-46.13%. This is a remarkably tight spread.]
Can you provide a link? Thanks.
OOPS!!!!!!!!!! Thought I linked it Thanks for catching that:
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Tee site is up dated daily worth a look every day the methodology is explained there.
Agree. Unless Romney calls the media out on it! Which he should do, a la Newt.
If PA is the 'lock' that all the enemedia are trying to convince everyone it is,
WHY have I seen FOUR traitØr ads in just the past hour since turning on the tube ?
And they weren't on the expected alphabet liars, but relatively mid-market ESPN2 and BigTen networks !
Smells like maggØt fear !
Thanks!
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