Let’s be honest here. No incumbent has lost with more than 42% support at this point; none have won with less than 52% support at this point. Obama is dead center in that uncharted zone. The analysis says nothing. As for the integrity of polls, that has gone down over time, but it’s not measurable at this point. We’ll see in November, and I’m convinced it will be an interesting surprise.
This is an unchartered election. there will be lots of “firsts” here. Among other things, both campaigns will set records for the amounts of money they are spending. The problem is that Obama just doesn’t get the that his vision of America is fundamentally at odds with personal liberty. He keeps wanted to give government more and more power over individuals lives and choices. As Steve Forbes explains in Freedom Manifesto (http://goo.gl/CKSUh) that is immoral, counter-productive, and downright dangerous.