“The bottom line: Historically speaking, this president is in weaker shape than any postwar incumbent who went on to victory, with the possible exception of Harry Truman; he is enjoying a convention bounce later in the cycle than any incumbent in the postwar era; and if he manages to win, it will probably be via a true squeaker, with plenty of twists and turns to come.”
I disagree with this, from an equally historically-based standpoint. Romney has a vicious electoral college disadvantage. Romney’s fate is essentially decided by how FL goes. He really has to win a huge majority of the single-digit states, too. Like it or not, 0bama has several ways to win.
“Romney has a vicious electoral college disadvantage.”
I have to agree. I absolutely believe Romney can still win at this point. But as you correctly point out, his path to 270 doesn’t allow much room for error.