I don’t buy this one. You can’t cherry pick Rasmussen’s partisan breakdown and use it to re-adjust Gallup’s numbers, while rejecting the Rasmussen poll at the same time.
The Gallup poll would take into account a day before the Dem convention as well as the first day which was a dud.
This may be a better big picture view than only the convention dynamics of the last few days.
You are correct. I wouldnt trust the +4 R number until we see it in November.
The other thing, though is that the Gallup is an RV poll not an LV poll. The LV universe is more R than all RVs.
Gallup is not skewing their sample at all, unlike some others.