[Wilum]

Your post is exactly how I have been feeling since I saw the poll on Drudge Friday. I remember 2008 the same exact discussions on FR putting down the polls as inaccurate and the election results were within a couple of points of the polls.

Go ahead and poo-poo but unless some type of fire is lit under Romney's butt, it IS going to be a 2008 repeat and this country will be lost.

[Arthurio]

“I remember 2008 the same exact discussions on FR”

Uh, McCain was LEADING in the polls on this exact date in 2008. Convention bounces can be (and usually are) fleeting.

[LS]

As one who CITED the polls saying McCain would beat Hillary (and who thought Obama would be weaker), I fess up. I did think that most polls undercounted McCain. Here's why:

We were in GOP headquarters in Mont. Co., OH and we were getting a very strong indication that our "base" would turn out.

This is why going back to previous elections is useless: we thought if the "base" turned out---as per Rove's model in 2004---McCain would win. Early reports were that "red" areas were turning out strongly. I felt pretty good by the time the polls closed. Then we looked at the first actual return from a precinct that should have been 100% red. It was 25% Obama, and we knew that he'd win the whole thing.

But based on 04, nobody could possibly have guessed that a whole bunch of Rs would vote D.

Likewise this time around, I would not put too much stock in the polls. First, their internals do not jibe with their purported findings. Second, from all we can tell, Romney is winning the precious independents heavily. But most important, NO ONE knows what the turnout model in THIS election will be---not Gallup, not Rasmussen. Most are basing it on 2008. I'm certain that's wrong. I think 2010 is closer, maybe 2011 closer still in the WI recall. But no one is adjusting for those changes.

But . . . do you know ANY Republicans who will be voting for Obama this time around?