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Why Is This Election Close?
Powerline ^ | 09/08/2012 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 09/08/2012 1:03:40 PM PDT by nhwingut

For a long time I have been predicting that Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination, and that he would then win the general election. I have said that the election will be reasonably close–demographic realities dictate that all national elections will be reasonably close, for the foreseeable future–but not a squeaker; more like 2004 than 2000. Given President Obama’s dismal record, that seemed like a safe prediction.

But it now appears that the election will be very close after all, and that Obama might even win it. It will require a few more days to assess the effects (if any) of the parties’ two conventions, but for now it looks as though the Democrats emerged with at least a draw, despite a convention that was in some ways a fiasco. In today’s Rasmussen survey, Obama has regained a two point lead over Romney, 46%-44%. Scott Rasmussen writes:

The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters.

So the Democrats’ red meat, over-the-top attacks on Republicans apparently worked at least as well as the Republicans’ more positive, low-key approach.

On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed.

(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; obama; romney
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To: nhwingut

The Takers want more from the Makers. Only one party his this as a foundational party platform.


81 posted on 09/08/2012 2:47:22 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: YHAOS

“Why is this Election close?”

Who says it is?

Agreed - I just returned from a 2400 mile road trip across OK, MO, IL, IN, MI and OH. In 2400 miles, I saw one obama bumper sticker and it was a 2008 sticker. My “bumper sticker barometer” tells me this one is not going to be close. 4 years ago, those damn “o” stickers were everywhere - not this time....red


82 posted on 09/08/2012 2:53:26 PM PDT by rednek ("Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.")
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To: ConservativeStatement
The USA Today, yesterday, had a telling graphic for the swing states. Romney is +5 with white women and +19 with white men.

Wow, that's good news. We're still the majority. Let's take our country back! (No, it's not racist if we want to preserve our Sacred Republic!)


83 posted on 09/08/2012 2:53:54 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: nhwingut

If Romney was actually closer to Reagan than George W Bush I believe this would be a landslide election. It may be irregardless.
I have run into a lot of people who absolutely can not stand what Team O has done ..as well as not done.


84 posted on 09/08/2012 2:58:31 PM PDT by Leep (I'm a Chic-Fil-- A-merican)
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To: nhwingut

> “On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? “

The reason it is close is because of Mitt Romney. He is not well-liked and even less trusted. This is the result of a GOPe that thinks they know better than the Conservative Grass Roots.

Romney always has an escape clause in his policy statements. He is dubious and not trustworthy.

The only compelling reason for people to vote for this poor selection of the GOPe is because he is not Obama. This is a very lame reason.

If Romney loses, the GOPe will blame the conservatives for not voting for their guy. Conservatives will blame the GOPe for being out of touch with what the country needs.

I will vote down ticket for all conservatives. As long as conservatives have effective control of the Senate, I do not think that Obama will be able to do permanent damage should he win.

I believe the state level is making great conservative strides in Voter ID and in other social issues such as illegal immigration and abortion on demand. I believe the Catholic Church in the USA is trending conservative as they feel threatened as never before.

But should Romney win, conservatives will have no place to go.

Therefore, if Obama wins, the GOPe will be extinguished and a conservative Congress along with conservative statehouses will render Obama incapable of inflicting fatal damage on the Republic.

Therefore, should Romney win, members of the GOP will feel good for about 1 to 2 years and then be severely disappointed when they see the GOP become more like the democrats with respect to gay marriage, government controlled healthcare, gun control, abortion and many others issues that conservatives are passionate about.


85 posted on 09/08/2012 3:03:31 PM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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Comment #86 Removed by Moderator

To: marygam
What I will tell you is everyone must convince 1 person to vote against Obama.

Okay, who wants to try to convince Shep Smith?

87 posted on 09/08/2012 3:08:03 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: nhwingut

By definition, half of any given population falls below the intelligence median.


88 posted on 09/08/2012 3:08:41 PM PDT by tomkat ( FU hussein)
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To: nhwingut

I don’t know that it is close and neither do you, if only because it hasn’t happened yet, D’UH!

I know and can predict precisely our reaction here if the Bishop loses:

He wasn’t conservative enough.
He wasn’t aggressive enough.

Perhaps. I know we have an uninformed electorate, gimme electorate, gummint dependent electorate.

All the people that I personally know who will vote for Osambo are without exception working, have not been much affected by the economic turndown, and most of all, are willingly uninformed, uneducated, despite their college, sometimes post-graduate, degrees.


89 posted on 09/08/2012 3:10:18 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: BereanBrain
50.1% RECEIVE more money from the government than they pay in (the Dole). 49.9% Pay Taxes

The parasite is killing the host.

90 posted on 09/08/2012 3:13:08 PM PDT by Sirius Lee (You ain't holding anybody's feet to the fire ya lousy limp noodle.)
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To: Perdogg

[Not true about 1988. Bush was ahead by at least 6 a week before. Bush struggled in September but found his groove in October.]

Sorry. I went by memory rather than looking it up.


91 posted on 09/08/2012 3:14:48 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: tomkat
By definition, half of any given population falls below the intelligence median.

By definition, it's either you or me, pal!

92 posted on 09/08/2012 3:16:15 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: beethovenfan

(4) Many on the Right believe it’s more important to punish the GOP.


93 posted on 09/08/2012 3:20:23 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: RedStatePatriot2012

I’ve always suspected that the political wise men, that is the DC consultants, are convinced and have convinced the candidates, backed by focus group data, that voters cannot be educated by a candidate or his proxies. And certainly, voters did not bother to educate themselves about Obama in 2008, which wasn’t easy, but it was possible, and everything indicates that they haven’t bothered to educate themselves about him now, not about his past, not even about his last 4 years which clearly present a stubborn ideologue, not unlike a Castro, and certainly unlike a Gorbachev.


94 posted on 09/08/2012 3:21:15 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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To: tomkat
By definition, half of any given population falls below the intelligence median.

Are you sure that statistic is still valid? :-))

95 posted on 09/08/2012 3:23:29 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: RedStatePatriot2012

What is totally and utterly disappointing and frustrating is how, while the GOP made occasional critiques of Obama at their convention, they did not in ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM attempt to do any kind of indictment of the Democrat party as a whole. This in a year when we are desperately trying to win back the Senate, not just defeat Obama.

Then the DNC makes almost every speech about how the Republicans have somehow steered our country wrong for 30 years and caused every problem that we have. But we almost never hear any attempt to define and criticize the Democrats from our side. At best they focus on one or two names of Democrats and try to say they’re not up to the job, but they never even try to explain how bad liberal policies always are for the country.

The Republican campaign is an absolute, laughable, pathetic joke. They’re working very hard to not even show up to the fight. I don’t think they have time to recover from their huge loss to the Democrats in the convention bounce competition, unless they make a total 180-degree turnaround in their tactics, which we all know they’ll never do.

Whoever is making most of the decisions likes Democrats, are sympathetic to Democrats, and that is why they can’t stomach attacking them. It has nothing to do with strategy no matter what they say. The party is simply not conservative enough and not motivated enough to defeat the Democrats. Sure, they’d like to win the election, but they don’t believe the country will really be any worse off under Democrats, so they don’t have any fire in the belly to really fight.


96 posted on 09/08/2012 3:24:29 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: JediJones

The GOP plays nice while the Dems weild dirty broken bottles and ambush from the gutters.


97 posted on 09/08/2012 3:25:47 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: xkaydet65

Good points.

Read and study here:

http://www.fairtax.org/site/PageServer?pagename=about_faq


98 posted on 09/08/2012 3:27:51 PM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: Sirius Lee
50.1% RECEIVE more money from the government than they pay in (the Dole). 49.9% Pay Taxes

Looks like half of the population falls below the taxpaying median as well.

99 posted on 09/08/2012 3:29:08 PM PDT by JediJones (Grow your own dope...plant a Democrat.)
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To: Revolting cat!
I find most FReepers tend to fall, fittingly, on the right side of that particular graph.

And I'd bet that the mean here is somewhere around the 80th percentile of the distribution and above.

There have, however, been some notable exceptions.
Along with a fair subset of outliers from CocoaPuffs land .. lol

100 posted on 09/08/2012 3:30:53 PM PDT by tomkat ( FU hussein)
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