The down ticket races are all overwhelmingly going Republican, thanks to redistricting. Our D Governor, Bev Purdue, had such lousy poll numbers that she declined to run for re-election. The Lt. Gov decided to run, but he has been spending most of his money introducing himself to NC since he had near ZERO profile over the last four years. Republican McCrory is leading him in all of the polls by a big margin.
In general, the Democrats have no motivation to come out to vote in November. The college crowd of 2008 is largely gone and what is left cannot fill 1/3rd of the stadium seats at UNC-CH for an Obama visit/rally.
The real teller is the near total lack of Obama 2012 stickers on cars in Chapel Hill. In 2008, over half the cars had some sticker displayed, whether it be Obama, HRC or Edwards. Of course, I have only seen one Romney sticker (on a pick-up truck), but, hey, this is Chapel Hill, the bluest part of NC.
The nail in the NC coffin for Obama was the gay marriage referendum which lost 60:40 and was largely defeated by a very unified Black church-going population. They are really mad at Obama for “evolving” his position toward gay marriage.
I seriously doubt many blacks will vote for Romney — maybe 2-3%, but the passive-aggressive non-vote will probably push Romney ahead to a 55:45 victory.
BTW, I spend a lot of time in Virginia, and other than Richmond, the same phenomenon is evident as in NC.
“I seriously doubt many blacks will vote for Romney — maybe 2-3%, but the passive-aggressive non-vote will probably push Romney ahead to a 55:45 victory.”
I am seeing very diminished enthusiasm in Mississippi as well, for similar reasons as you cite for NC, and the slow rotting economy.