When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence

Western Rifle Shooters Association ^ | September 4, 2012 | Matt Bracken

[hinckley buzzard]

Interesting read. I would expect the military would be mobilized early on and restore order, even though that would make for a shorter, less exciting story. We had National Guard troops and tanks on the streets in Cleveland within a couple days to handle the Glenville shootout and riots of 1968, which included heavily armed snipers. The threat of armor-mounted machine guns seemed to help a lot with crowd control.

[Louis Foxwell]

Correct. The National Guard is uniquely equipped to control insurrection.

[Travis McGee]

Very interesting post, thanks. Yes, I agree, there are two parties, and the president of either party, when faced with a dozen cities burning, could well send in federal troops with shoot to kill orders. While I don’t think that will happen in a time frame likely to prove effective (early), it could happen. But the intent of my essay was just to launch a thought experiment based on the unexpected and rapid end of the EBT / food stamp system. The likely sequence of cascading events can be guessed at in the early stages, but chaos and randomness soon throws us into the unknown. What is known is that our cities are tinderboxes waiting for a match.

[danielmryan]

Thanks for your response. I had hoped that you'd get a kick out of seeing a historical example that differed from your usual beat.

I'm not a betting man by nature, and there'd be no way to settle the bet even if I proffered it, but I'm sure that:
a) the Pentagon does have contingency plans in place for the scenario you described, and
b) they're highly classified, in large part because the Wonkette circuit would go moonbat-feral if those plans ever were declassified.

By all means, keep up with the thought experiments. Like many others here, I find them fascinating. If I have any skin in the game, it would be as a welcomer if patriots have to seek refuge in Canada a la It Can't Happen Here. The gun laws in the Great White North are almost shockingly restrictive - we Canadians are actually forbidden to own any sort of AK-47, period - but Canada's peaceable, the riots are few and they tend to be cracked down upon.

[Travis McGee]

I’m thinking from your Pierre T. example, that it might have been similar to the often-cited case of conservative (?) president Nixon opening China. A democrat would not do so, for fear of inviting the criticism of being in bed with Communists.

So perhaps a leftist Trudeau is more free to unleash hell upon the lefties? A conservative might have had more hesitation. That’s something to consider. Perhaps a Democrat president might be the first to issue shoot-to-kill orders against “his own people.”

[danielmryan]

I’m thinking from your Pierre T. example, that it might have been similar to the often-cited case of conservative (?) president Nixon opening China. A democrat would not do so, for fear of inviting the criticism of being in bed with Communists.

So perhaps a leftist Trudeau is more free to unleash hell upon the lefties? A conservative might have had more hesitation. That’s something to consider. Perhaps a Democrat president might be the first to issue shoot-to-kill orders against “his own people.”

Yes, that was in the back of my mind. One of the rules of advertising is that a spokesperson speaking against his/her interest enjoys high credibility. Similarly, a lib politician acting in a conservative manner enjoys a credibility boost. It's easy to call someone like Nixon a "fascist." But a left-liberal like Trudeau, even when his government declares martial law? To the ordinary bloke, that label is contrary to common sense. If anything, Trudeau getting behind anti-terrorist (and properly aimed) martial law makes him look bigger than his ideology.

Consequently, someone like Obama can get away with imposing law-and-order if he chooses to. Just as Ronald Reagan could launch peace initiatives and look better, not worse, for doing so.

In fact, Obama has already benefitted in that way. How much support did he lose for signing the NDAA?

Oh...while I'm on the subject of advertising: another found rule is that a black spokesman also enjoys high credibility. Quite an achievement for a 'racist' country ;)

[DuncanWaring]

...we Canadians are actually forbidden to own any sort of AK-47,...

How ya fixed for Enfields?

[danielmryan]

From my light reading, Enfields are okey-dokey if the magazine has only a 10-round capacity.

Here's one for any of you Americans who are depressed, angry or whatnot about the state of your own country. If you're looking for a pick-me-up in this area, have a gander at Canada's gun control regime. Myself, I have to abide by these laws.

[papertyger]

I really do not mind that you are agressively opposed to my thoughts. Your choice of insults, however, is over the top. Consider yourself reported for violating one of the cardinal rules of this site.

Duly noted.

[papertyger]

...your reply to my military service.

My reply to you trading on it like some Jesse Jackson-esqe poverty pimp.

You're hiding behind military service is an insult to anyone who wore the uniform.

[Gene Eric]

We are at least 2 decades away from a Civil War.

[spetznaz]

Good point

[lyby]

bfl

[lyby]

bfl

[familyop]

I've been calling for starving the beast as soon as possible, because both political parties are controlled by constituents who drive increases in debt while sucking on that debt. Government cannot continue to be big without revenues from a large manufacturing base. As for gradualism/incrementalism pushed in politics by so-called progressives (commies), it's the slow way.

Starve the beast, and make it small. Government cannot continue to be big without revenues from a large manufacturing base. Become more self-sufficient. Learn to manufacture something useful as a hobby for now.

I've made that clear hundreds of times, at least. I welcome the bond collapse and repudiation of debt just ahead, because that's the only way to decrease the size of government. That's conservative. Socialist readers who don't like it should quit their government jobs/pensions and government-linked services and find something useful to produce instead of using the feminist tactic of false accusations in political speech. Nearly all of the insanity in contemporary, bipartisan socialist politics results from the following.

From The Collaborative International Dictionary of English v.0.48 :

  Hysteria \Hys*te"ri*a\, n. [NL.: cf. F. hyst['e]rie. See
     Hysteric.] (Med.)
     A nervous affection, occurring almost exclusively in women,
     in which the emotional and reflex excitability is
     exaggerated, and the will power correspondingly diminished,
     so that the patient loses control over the emotions, becomes
     the victim of imaginary sensations, and often falls into
     paroxism or fits.
     [1913 Webster]
  
     Note: The chief symptoms are convulsive, tossing movements of
           the limbs and head, uncontrollable crying and laughing,
           and a choking sensation as if a ball were lodged in the
           throat. The affection presents the most varied
           symptoms, often simulating those of the gravest
           diseases, but generally curable by mental treatment
           alone. Hysteric

How Dramatically Did Women's Suffrage Change the Size and Scope of Government?

JOHN R. LOTT Jr.
American Enterprise Institute (AEI) (download links for whole document at bottom of page)

September 1998

University of Chicago Law School, John M. Olin Law & Economics Working Paper No. 60
Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 107, Number 6, Part 1, pp. 1163-1198, December 1999

Abstract:

This paper examines the growth of government during this century as a result of giving women the right to vote. Using cross-sectional time-series data for 1870 to 1940, we examine state government expenditures and revenue as well as voting by U.S. House and Senate state delegations and the passage of a wide range of different state laws. Suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise. Contrary to many recent suggestions, the gender gap is not something that has arisen since the 1970s, and it helps explain why American government started growing when it did.

[crazydad]

Here’s a question? Could Obama call on the Russians to come help stabilize our country? Is that what Obama meant when talking to Medved? I would not put it past him. But I do believe he would call for UN assistance in a heart beat. Then we would see who the true Americans are in our Armed forces... IMHO

[spetznaz]

Ethnicity isn't the only thing you have to worry about. I suspect you'll see a lot of "anarchists" playing in this mix. Certain leftist groups are definitely prepared, and they've been funded for decades.

Travis McGee wrote a really interesting (and viable) essay, and I think the reason he didn't include that (among other things) is because of time and space constraints. There are only so many facets and aspects one can introduce into a concept without starting to take away from it. However I agree with you completely that ethnicity is not the only issue, and in my opinion will not be the main issue once things really start moving (please note: I'm black - but not African American - thus I may be biased).

My reasoning is as follows. While the beginning stages of a societal breakdown will definitely be quite stark in terms of ethnic based strife (especially since rioters and looters will be from minority groups), and the scenario so clearly illustrated by Travis McGee will play out more or less as shown (ie rioters comprised of mostly urban youth cleaning out supermarkets, then attacking targets perceived as vulnerable, leading to the rise of countermovements - mostly White male - to stop the thievery and killing of the urban mobs). Also, as shown by Travis McGee, the countermovements can be very effective due to the superior tactics and weapons used (on aggregate).

However, very soon new dynamics will come into play. The US is a country of over 300 million people, and while minority populations are a part of that the nation as a whole is bigger than just 'minority urban youth.' The MUY mobs will be quickly defeated (and probably more so by hunger sapping their strength and will, making then to collapse inwards, than by lone wolves at the back of trucks). The big problem is that the rest of the country - the nonrioting placid law abiding citizenry - will also start going hungry. Need medicines. Water. They may take longer to break than the urban minority youth, but break they will.

Look at your average suburbian 'estate.' Many houses in close proximity to each other, absolutely no food or water storage (since there is always clean piped water and WalMart is only a 15 minute drive away), and total reliance on the system for everything (you name it - for security, medical care, everything). The average suburban home is just a more affluent version of a Section 8 home ...they all suck on the government teat, with the main difference being that in the ghetto it is more overt and by far more basic. But both average examples of each suckle hard and long off Uncle Sam.

When the system crashes most of suburbia, after spending the first week fending off the zombie like urban mobs moving from the inner cities into suburbia, will start to turn into zombies themselves. By the start of week two most homes will be out of food. At first they will rely on friends and neighbors who were better prepared, but by the start of week three even those neighbors will stop being as 'generous' once they realize things are not getting better as quickly as they thought they would. People can be very generous when they think they are in a short timeframe sh!t storm, but when there is no end in sight people start to hoard. That's when the fabric that was holding things together starts to shear and shunt. If a kid is sick and hungry a person will ask their neighbor nicely, and if told no will go home. Same thing day 2,3 and maybe 4. After a business week of a crying hungry and sick child, and the belief that the neighbor is 'unfairly' hoarding supplies, things quickly change.

In my (probably wrong) estimation, suburbia will be a huge killing zone. Not because of rioting black youth in the first week or two, but rather by the MUCH LARGER unprepared suburban population that is totally desperate and cognitively disparate. The minority urban youths will not last a week, but the average suburban home is surrounded by dozens upon dozens of homes (not to mention the hundreds more in neighbouring suburban estates arranged in close proximity), and most of those homes have people with absolutely ZERO preparation. At most they have one of those water cooler bottles, and maybe enough food for a week or two.

When the system collapses these people will band together to protect themselves from the first wave of 'zombies' - the inner city you. However, if things are not back to normal by the end of week two it is these same people who will become the second (much larger) pool of 'zombies.' A much more dangerous threat.

Now, the above applies to even Conservatives (even FReepers) who live in suburban areas with no preparation. A hungry child and a nagging spouse asking why there hasn't been any food and little water for 10 days doesn't care if you supported Gingrich or the Ayatollah. However, also consider that around 50% of the US is liberal. They will be even more unprepared than the average Conservative.

I think the continuation of your excellent essay, Travis McGee, should incorporate survival strategies for people who make it through the first acute wave of attack. Reason being in another week they will be facing a second chronic wave of attack by their own neighbors, many of whom will be as similarly armed (in weapon and mindset). In the rural areas this is not an issue since food and water will be available and people will work together (eg half farming with the other half doing protection duty), but that is not an option in suburbia.

If the system collapses, in the same way most black people will be killed by other black people (especially once excursions outside are met with hostile fire forcing the mobs to fall back to their home turf), most white people will be killed by other White people.

[Travis McGee]

Fantastic reply, seriously, I would just tack it on to Music Stops. YOu are exactly correct, length considerations kept me focused on the first steps in a much worse progression.

Not only that, but if EBTs are cut off, so will medicare, social security, govt pensions including military pensions, etc. The urban cores will explode first due to smaller pantries, but the suburbs will be right behind them.

That few weeks you describe very well will be your cue to GET OUT OF DODGE if you have a fallback plan or escape pod. Otherwise, if “bugging in” you need to really rally the subdivsion for an epic struggle to survive. Not only in terms of security, but food production, one way or the other.

Luckily, where I live drinkable water is only 20’ down, and everything grows everywhere all year. (North FL). The first year might be like the pilgrims, with a high attrition rate. Assuming it doesn’t go totally Mad Max or 1984. Which it might.

[JimRed]

Could Obama call on the Russians to come help stabilize our country?

By "stabilize" I assume that you mean put down the rebellion, not bring in foreign aid. I don't trust the man as far as I could throw him; I believe he'll do anything to retain power.

His attitude is Satan's; better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven.

[spetznaz]

Thanks Travis McGee. The problem with many preppers (and their scenario planning) is, in my opinion, that it only focuses on stratagems to handle the initial acute thrust from easily identifiable people of hostile intent (for most preppers this would be black and Latino people), and due to this many threads I've read on FR on the issue revolve around amassing food and water supplies, silver/gold for commerce after TEOTWAWKI, and, ofcourse, sizeable caches of firearms and ammunition.

I think all of the above is outrightly suicidal!

Now, before I am flogged and then drawn and quartered let me elucidate my point. All of the above is VERY IMPORTANT and of greatest prudence. It is important for people to arm themselves (and train, and I don't mean shooting at a paper target but dynamic reality-based training), and ofcourse having food and water reserves is simple common sense. It will be extremely helpful in the first two weeks after the cogs in the system get stuck.

The reason it is suicidal, however, stems from the fact that many Preppers I've read about have these caches of food, precious metal and firearms in suburbia! They will be dead in a month! I remember one FReeper who was saying how he even has a generator at his suburban home. Imagine the middle of week 3, when all your neighbor's are starving in darkness, and your home at the end of the street is the only one with electricity? With a nice loud monotonous drone of a genny? Goodness, even a c-grade Italian zombie movie director from the 1970s wouldn't include such an obvious 'come-get-me' in his movie script. What about all the guns? The 10 Mosins and 5 Kalashnikovs (and one AR-15 with the secret automatic adjustment)? Let's also assume one has 15 cousins living with him in the house (rather than the more likely wife and kids), and all 16 of you are crack shots. You live on the end of the street, and you have several dozen families with nothing to lose converging on you?

Goodluck!

I think a lot of people have fantasies that it will turn out their way. Some personal version of Omega Man, with the Heston role being played by them. The problem is that, very quickly, a lot of placid nice neighbors, when driven by hunger and sickness and despair and desperation, will become marauding beasts that will form huge scavenger 'sweeper' gangs that will make the minority urban youth gangs seem like jokers. A mother seeing sustenance for her starving child cannot be stopped by anything less than a headshot. You would need veritable claymores around your property to fend off the inevitable crowds that would be sweeping suburbia.

Not to mention other viable but non-human perils that will exist. For example the huge outflow of sickness that will arise due to improper sanitation, water, and buildup of dead bodies. Or, and this one will be there a-plenty, huge fire outbreaks (due to arson, nature, or accident). It is quite interesting how combustible suburban estates can be, especially when there are no fire fighters (or flowing water for that matter) to put down the conflagration! Most preppers I've seen don't seem to consider such issues, and just talk of how many bricks of .22 ammo they have. The truth is that TEOTWAWKI will not be a fun experience - even for those best prepared for it in every way. It will be a veritable nightmare for 99.999% of people.

The way I view prepping for TEOTWAWKI is similar to how a weapon owner would view his pistol - as a way of fighting his way to his rifle. Same thing here - urban prepping is only useful for one thing! Making you survive the first 2 weeks so you can 'fight' your way to a previously prepared hideout that is FAR from the suburbs. As I said in a rural setting one has similar minded people, can share food production and protection duties (and can actually sleep ...the 'urban rambos' maybe think they can stay constantly awake to fight off Ramone and Tyrone), and they are a much harder target to attack. Unless people leave the suburbs in the first 2 weeks, before the roads have started to be blocked and well armed scavengers are up and about, they are dead.

Obviously the time to develop (and fund) an exit strategy is now, since when things 'are elephant' there will not be enough time to waltz to some rural community many miles away and charm them into feeding you and your get. But most people are developing (and funding) suburbia survival plans, and I wish them a lot of luck since they will absolutely need it. It is not impossible to do so, but it is beyond the reach of most people who currently consider themselves 'prepared' due to their coin collection, 10,000 rounds of ammo, and 'proven skills' shooting paper targets at the range.

Apologies for any spelling errors (using my iPhone, which has an interesting habit of twisting certain spellings) and faulty logic (I may be 100% wrong, but I really think a lot of preppers are 'pimping' their handgun when they should actually be practicing getting out of dodge before 2 weeks are out - and prepping NOW - because once things go belly up they will be very successful shooting the Ramones and the Tyrones, only to be killed 2 weeks later by 'gentle' Mr Davis and 'sweet' Ms Tracy ...and dozens to hundreds of similar 'gentle and sweet' souls). Any prepper plan that doesn't involve active plans to get out of suburbia the moment things look 'seriously funny' is an exercise in futility.