Posted on 09/02/2012 1:06:53 PM PDT by GR_Jr.
he Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Just prior to this past week's Republican National Convention, Romney trailed the president by two. Todays four-point advantage confirms that the GOP hopeful has received the expected convention bounce.
A presidents job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the presidents job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing (see trends).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
All of that is built into the margin of error and effectively minimized through scientific polling methods (i.e., polling 600 instead of 60).
Hang ups are overcome through proper model construction based on known voter registration statistics.
You can look at it as being similar to the effective elimination of stock-specific risk through the creation of a diversified portfolio.
We can’t believe any polls during an election. No one has any integrity to trust anymore. It’s all professional propaganda gaming.
The other difficulty this time around is that so much of the micro data seems to point to a landslide, or a very big victory for Romney. For ex, the fact that by almost every poll shows CT close and "in play", the poll from northern VA showing Obama barely up in a region he won by 23%, the agreement of every poll that the indies have swung heavily toward Romney. On the other hand, while the trend is good, Romney still trails in NV and hasn't opened up any room in OH.
So my optimistic side goes with the former data.
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