Posted on 09/01/2012 3:31:41 PM PDT by xzins
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have “almost finally” decided on an Israeli strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities this fall, and a final decision will be taken “soon,” Israel’s main TV news broadcast reported on Friday evening.
Channel 2 News, the country’s leading news program, devoted much of its Friday night broadcast to the issue, detailing the pros and cons that, it said, have taken Netanyahu and Barak to the brink of approving an Israeli military attack despite opposition from the Obama administration and from many Israeli security chiefs.
Critically, the station’s diplomatic correspondent Udi Segal said, Israel does not believe that the US will take military action as Iran closes in on the bomb.
The US, the TV report said, has not provided Israel with details of an attack plan. President Obama has not promised to attack Iran if all else fails. Conditions cited by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta for an American attack do not calm Israeli concerns. And Obama has a record of seeking UN and Arab League approval before action. All these factors, in Jerusalem’s mind, underline the growing conviction of Netanyahu and Barak that Israel will have to tackle Iran alone, the TV report said.
Israel’s leaders have also noted that president George W. Bush vowed repeatedly that North Korea would not be allowed to attain a nuclear weapons capability — a vow that proved empty.
Obama does not want to intervene militarily before the presidential elections in November, and it is doubtful that he would act afterwards, runs the Israeli assessment, the TV report said. Obama may believe that the US can live with a nuclear Iran, but Israel cannot, the report quoted those in “Netanyahu’s circle” as saying.
As for presidential challenger Mitt Romney, he takes a more forceful position, but would probably not have the domestic support necessary to act in the first year of his presidency, if elected, and after that it would be too late.
The US can live with Iran as a “breakout state” — on the edge of attaining a bomb, the report said the prime minister’s circle believes. But “for Israel, a breakout state is a nuclear state.”
Netanyahu, for his part, “is convinced that thwarting Iran amounts to thwarting a plan to destroy the Jewish people,” Channel 2′s Segal said. The prime minister considers Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be acting rationally in order to achieve “fanatical” goals.
Segal said that, when considering the imperative to attack, Netanyahu and Barak reason that “we may have reached the moment of truth” after which it would be too late to stop Iran, and that “the price of an attack is far lower than the price of inaction.” It will be “a matter of a few months” before it is too late, Segal said — before, that is, Iran would be immune from damage by an Israeli strike.
The TV report cited intelligence information suggesting that Iran “is much further ahead” than previously thought in its uranium enrichment and in other aspects of its nuclear weapons program.
Segal said Israel’s capacity to impact the Iranian program was dwindling, and the “window of opportunity” was closing. “Four years ago,” he said, an Israeli strike could have set back the Iranian program “by two to four years.” A year from now, an Israeli strike “would have a negligible impact.”
Netanyahu was reported to have said in private conversations that “if no one attacks, Iran will get the bomb” — underlining that he does not believe sanctions will thwart Tehran.
The extensive TV report detailed what it said was the Israeli leadership duo’s thinking on the military, diplomatic and economic consequences of an Israeli strike, and the consequences of Iran getting the bomb.
Militarily, an Israeli strike would prompt missile attacks on Israel, attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah from the south and the north, and upheaval on the Arab street, in the leadership’s assessment. The assessment is that Syria’s President Bashar Assad would not get involved, since this would finish him off, the report said. But if Iran got the bomb, the missile threat would be escalated, Hamas and Hezbollah further empowered, and there would be a danger of any crisis escalating into a nuclear crisis.
Diplomatically, an Israeli strike would prompt a confrontation with the US, global protests, international isolation for Israel, delegitimization, and a situation in which Israel was seen as the aggressor. But if Iran got the bomb, Israel would be defeated and humiliated diplomatically, and would become a liability to the US, the TV report said Israel’s two key leaders believe.
Economically, an Israeli strike would deepen the economic slowdown and lead to a suspension of foreign investment. An Iranian bomb would end foreign investment in Israel, however, and prompt an exodus of Israel’s best brains.
Netanyahu and Barak were said to believe that an Israeli military strike, though opposed by Washington, would not shatter ties with the US. Survey figures that have impacted their thinking suggest significant US support for an American and for an Israeli strike on Iran, the TV report said.
Israel would not be planning to draw the US into a war with Iran by striking at Iran’s nuclear facilities, the report said. And Israel does not believer an attack would prompt regional war.
The TV report made much of a recent speech by Netanyahu, at the scene of Sunday’s terror attack thwarted by Israel at the Gaza-Egypt-Israel border. Visiting the area on Monday, Netanyahu said Israel “must and can” only rely on itself to safeguard its security.
“It becomes clear time after time that when it comes to the safety of Israeli citizens, Israel must and can rely only on itself. No one can fulfill this role except the IDF and different Israel security forces of Israel, and we will continue to conduct ourselves in this way,” Netanyahu said.
Israel will release information that they will attack in the fall, if they decide to attack before summer is over.
After talking to a member of my family who has inside information(I cant divulge who it is because then that person’s life could be in danger) but something is definitely up and Israel will be making a move soon. Before I was told that they would not do anything, but especially now since the US HAS told Israel that they are on their own if they do attack Iran’s nuclear facilities(Yes that rumor is true) its looking like Israel will be doing everything possible to destroy Iran’s nukes, I dont know when this will happen but I just hope that it happens AFTER the election, especially with a Romney victory the US will support Israel’s actions
I can confirm what you have been told. I have family in Israel (a few who are currently serving in the IDF) who have informed me that an attack is likely SOON, VERY SOON!
That is what I have been told too. That its going to happy very soon I just hope that if it does happen that it happens during a Romney Administration. Wait til AFTER the election, that is what I hope happens. The US has already abandoned support for Israel, that rumor was indeed true, so I dont know why they would want to do this now, wait til after Romney is elected, but I guess they fear that there is a chance that he wont win so mind as well do it now. I have never seen in my lifetime, our #1 Ally in Israel being spit on by the U.S, never seen it in my life
happy = happen..I type too fast for my own good sometimes
Sarah,
Israel cannot wait and take a chance on the reelection of the evil “Manchurian Candidate”!
This president is a disgrace!!!
G-d will judge him!!!
Agree 100% re EMPs... Unless Iran has hardened its electrical grid, all of its command and control facilities, military facilities, nuke facilities, etc, EMP attack makes ultimate sense. Iran - in an instant - would be turned dark. Nuclear and military facilities would shut down. Ability to move the nuke program forward stopped. Also (importantly), ability to retaliate against Israel or (importantly) US bases stopped. No direct “collateral damage” from bomb - no Hiroshima scenes of melting flesh, horrific destruction, etc. Just the Iranian society set back a couple hundred years - all in an instant. And, the Mullahs- instead of war mongering and wishing for the Mahdi’s return - would have to tend with their enraged populace needing the basics of survival.
The simplicity of an EMP answer to this dilemma - esp with Obama throwing Israel under his crowded bus - makes sublime sense. Conventional attacks from Israel’s relatively small military would be difficult at best and would have unpredictable efficacy. Once Obama pulled any support, this option became essentially untenable. A true nuke strike would have significant direct collateral damage (tens of thousands of dead civilians) and also would not necessarily get the job done (unless Israel used enough nuke ordinance to truly bomb Iran into the stone age); I have difficulty envisioning Bibi authorizing the direct deaths of multiple thousands of people. But, Israel is correct about the existential threat that a nuclear armed Iran poses. Thus, Bibi has to act and act decisively. EMPs might be the best solution to a Rubik’s cube-level dilemma. And, the Israelis are famous for unconventional solutions to potentially existential threats.
Absolutely!
From what I have been told the reason why Israel wants to act now is because Iran’s nuclear facilities are far more advanced than many in the media have reported, they feel like they have no choice.
Obama doesn’t believe in God, he pledges allegiance to himself and to Allah, he is a disgrace to the human race
You are correct on all counts Sarah!!!
Am Yisroel Chai! Forever and ever!
May the Almighty ride shotgun for you and cover your six.
I wondered about that too... My other concern - carrier groups in a small pond like the Persian Gulf are sitting ducks... It would be soooooo easy to take them out ...
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