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The key here is the 10% undecided. Which camp will they ultimately end up in? Historically, the undecideds ultimately break for the challenger by at least 2-1 margin. That comes to roughly a 53-47% Romney margin. If Romney gets them all, it's a 56-44% blowout. I think it's safe to say that Obama will get his 40-45% no matter what. The fact that he can't seem to climb much above 44% in all these polls is not a good sign for him.

Not sure what Obama can say or do in the coming week to bring the undecided to his camp. His hope and change spiel of 2008 turned out to be empty slogans and broken promises. What is he going to tell us Thursday night that will move him above 44%?

His only hope is to try and demonize the Romney/Ryan ticket and scare America into believing that they are better off with another four years of Obama. That's a tall order and Romney/Ryan have done an excellent job inoculating themselves against such an approach. Attempting to smear the Romney/Ryan ticket next week will only come across as being nasty, vindicative and desperate.

Yes, Thursday night looks to be quite the "cult of personality" spectacle. Obama will pack his stadium with screaming admirers and fainting ladies. He will look like a rock star walking out there and there will be standing ovation after standing ovation. But unlike 2008, he will come across to most of America as a washed-up rock star. I wonder if Obama will drag out those styrofoam Greek columns again!