it’s not a low estimate
it is exactly the difference between 2008 exit polls and this one for Jewish voters
Jews are 3.4% of Florida and 2.8 percent of Nevada...the only two states “in play” with sizable numbers...though still quite small
a 9 point swing in Florida would only be .3% of the vote...or one third of one percent of total votes in race counted
that is indeed tiny and would only matter in a 2000 style replay
so to me the Jewish vote only matters as something to talk about for the hell of it or this steady need we have hear to hope Jews will come around one day...if not for America then Israel...which is kinda odd if you think about it
would folks wish me to “come around” over concerns about Scotland or England?
what does matter about Jews is not their vote but rather their influence in our culture and politics especially the media and entertainment complex where they have huge huge influence way beyond their numbers...now if they had a huge swing that could mean something big
but that ain’t happening
You neglected two factors in your calculations: (1) A 9 point swing is actually an 18 point swing in the gap between Zero and his challenger, since Zero goes down by 9 and the GOP gains 9. (2) If Jews are 3.4% of Florida, they are probably more like 5% of the total vote, because (A) they are older on average and there are proportionally fewer youngsters not eligible to vote and (B) eligible Jews vote traditionally in disproportionately higher percentages than the general population.
So you might be talking about closer to a full percentage point swing in the difference between the candidates.
And please, don't take those 2008 exit polls as if they were given to us by G-d. They are the product of left-leaning polling organizations and no one has yet to explain the details of their methods in arriving at their numbers.
Well, in case you haven't noticed, there are quite a number of conservative-minded Jews prominent in media as political talkers and pundits and bloggers, etc. If you'll like me to give you a partial list of names, just ask. More currently, the producer of newly-released anti-Obama film, "2016," happens to be Jewish. Now hopefully that will be significant influence in the right direction.