I disagree with just about all of your theories.
By picking Ryan, Romney has defined the election to be focused on the economy, federal spending, and debt. That’s what matters most to the largest number of people, R, D, or I, liberal or conservative. It will force Obama to run on the foremost issue on which his record can be judged, and on which he fails miserably.
The Democrats would hae loved to make this election one of Rubio’s past and parentage, or about some bombastic comment made by Christie in the heat of passion. Instead, Romney has them outsmarted and outmaneuvered right from the get go, and this election will be centered on the #1 issue that matters most.
Sorry, but nothing will ever force the MSM to do or say anything that would disadvantage their boy.
The Chicago Boys will go right on demagoguing, as they have done with the "shove Granny off the cliff" ad, using black-propaganda techniques. The press callout on the scummy "Romney killed my wife" ad was an outlier.
If the Democrats refuse to respond to Romney with substantive arguments but continue to use lies and statistical lies to smear the GOP ticket, the MSM will cover for them. They always do. The Dems will have 360-degree tactical flexibility and air cover.