I just wonder if we can actually believe that poll. I’ve been seeing a lot lately about “over sampling” on one side of an issue and suspect if we have 48% of people likely to favor that position polled intentionally... i.e., was thus truly a random sample, or just a random sample of people at home during the day, etc.
Perfectly willing to consider that this particular poll is biased and significantly overstates public support for gay marriage.
I do think it is inarguable that the trend is towards increasing support. For most people opposition was based mainly on repulsion and disgust. That emotional response doesn’t stand up well to year after year of overt propaganda for the other side.
I would not be surprised if the poll’s 9% swing in 4 years is indeed quite accurate, even if their majority support result is not for now. I expect Maryland to be the first state to vote in favor, this November.