I have had the thought for several years now that other websites should create their own polling averages using whatever rules that they feel make the most accurate averages.
And then we can compare the poll aggregators in the same way we compare the polling firms, by seeing whose averages perform better over time as the most accurate.
I want to see threads that say something like: “In the 2014 election, the XYZ average performed the best, while the RCP and ZYX averages missed the mark.”
The CBS/NYT poll mentioned in the article was actually very bad news for Obama. The same poll asked about senate races in OH, PA, and FL....the oversampled democrats preferred the Democrat candidates - by a larger margin than they preferred Obama over Romney.
Hussein is in trouble - that’s the real story that nobody reported.
I’m glad someone is finally discussing this topic. I’ve never liked the RCP average. How can you combine polls of “likely voters” with polls of “registered voters” and even “adults” and expect your average to reflect, much less predict, reality?