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Posted on 07/22/2012 7:40:31 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Could it be true? Is all of this endless campaigning, a billion dollars in advertising and 24/7 blanket coverage of every word, gesture and sneeze by the candidates all a gigantic waste of time in an election which has essentially already been decided? That’s one possibility suggested by Dave Helling of McClatchy Newspapers who suggests that, "People's minds are made up, unlikely to change."
[A] growing number of political scientists and campaign consultants --- backed by the latest polling data --- think the daily campaign back-and-forth is having no significant effect on voters.
Most Americans have locked in their presidential decisions, polls released Thursday suggested, and the already small number of persuadable voters shrinks by the hour. Put another way: America could vote for president next week, and the outcome would probably be the same as it will be in November.
“That’s accurate, barring some really big, big event or change in the political environment,” said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, who has studied presidential voting patterns.
OK… so if the election is over, tell us who won so we can all get back to the important business of getting ready for the NFL pre-season games. Sadly, the analysis breaks down at that point, saying only that a rolling index of poll averages shows that the numbers are so tight that they’re within the margin of error. (And if you’ll pardon my saying, I think we already knew it was going to be close.)
Not for nothing, but telling us that the election is over but it’s going to come down to a handful of voters is pretty much akin to saying that the gun pointed at you is really close to being on target, so the bullet may or may not hit you. I think you’d want to have that information at hand in advance so you could still duck.
The author also goes on to point out that all of this depends on things staying pretty much as they are. A “big mistake” or a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.
But there is still a valid and interesting phenomenon being described in this study which is worth mulling over. Are Americans making up their minds much earlier than they did as little as fifteen years ago, and if so, why? It’s possible, at least for a percentage of the available voting pie. One reason cited by Helling is that campaigns and their well funded surrogates have the money to begin running saturation advertising much earlier in the cycle than in the old days, when candidates would jealously hoard much of their war chest for the critical final weeks and then launch an all out ad blitz.
If the voters are already living in a deeply divided nation (politically speaking) and begin seeing reinforcing messages on a daily basis as much as a year in advance, I’m guessing it can have an effect. If you’re already leaning one way or the other, the constant flood of “information” can serve to bolster those feelings. If you’re already leaning in Romney’s direction, all those ads from Obama about Mitt’s “shady” overseas dealings, investments and outsourcing will probably roll off your back as little more than poorly spun side effects of a successful, competent business career. If you’re pretty well leaning toward Obama, ads talking about massive spending, debt and unemployment will probably be interpreted as “just the way things are now” after the GOP broke the system before Obama took office and the way they “won’t work with him” to fix anything.
It’s easy to see how the “undecided vote” could be pared down to a far slimmer margin much earlier than it used to. And those unfortunate enough to live in the roughly ten or so swing states have doubtless grown accustomed to the constant presence of the candidates on their TV screens and in their public squares as little more than a bothersome fact of life.
Sure, the election may be over for a vast majority of Americans… possibly as much as 90 to 95 percent. But it’s that last little bit who will decide which side of the razor this election lands on. And with that in mind, the two sides are going to be fighting all the harder from now until election day morning.
If you ever get to Ellis Island, they have a 3-D chart that shows exactly this effect.
I believe that the only undecided potential voters are those who aren’t really sure if they will bother to vote.
And that hurts Hussein like heck.
Without turnout & enthusiasm, he may well be toast
Yeah ... that’s more like it.
Silly-— everyone knows the elections always hinge on the nuanced, undecided mushy moderates and independents on election day. Don’t forget the dead voters too ay?
Dick Morris is correct. I’ve followed Presidential Elections since 1960 and, yes, 80 percent of Undecideds break for the challenger on Election Day.
If it wasn’t for the recurring election cycles in the USA most media outlets would be Broke..Broke..Broke. They derive a huge portion of their revenue from political spending. That is one of the reasons they like to keep the political pot well stirred. It sells their fish wrap and ad time.
Exactly.
a critical change in either domestic or foreign circumstances could still tilt the scale. I found that admission to be a rather blunt blow to the premise of the entire article.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
OK, somebody help me out here. Having suffered, as a nation, for the past 3.5 years with high Unemployment, home foreclosures, ineptness of the current White House and every business owner in America being pissed off by President Obama’s “You didn’t do that...” statement........... Could even a National Emergency cause people to change their mind and vote for this guy for a second term? Really?
Somebody help me out here; PLEASE.
Ha, ha, yes, and has anyone polled the dead yet? That’s a very important Democrat constituency.
A) It seems to me that Romney supporters have given up their principles out of fear and are mostly not persuadable. As the old saying goes, you can’t reason someone out of what they didn’t arrive at via reason.
B) Obama supporters never had any principles, and are also not going to be persuaded.
C) Then there is everyone else. A large majority of the people as a whole can’t stand either Obama or Romney.
On the folks in the C group ride the fate of the republic.
By the way, myself and my family members have been polled many times in the last month. Never once was any choice given but Romney or Obama.
They’re not reporting on reality. They’re working to create their own chosen reality. Same old game.
That is exactly right. Obama is tacking left because he has to. Even his base doesn't particularly like him, and they might not show up. Almost everyone else has already decided. The media game for Obama is to get his base motivated by doing loony left things that make them salivate and to disgust the rest of us so we say "Romney did that? Well, a plague on both their houses," and those who despise Obama don't bother showing up to vote for anyone.
I made up my mind on January 20, 2009 at 12:01 PM - ANYONE but the kenyan marxist usurper!
I made up my mind on January 20, 2009 at 12:01 PM - ANYONE but the kenyan marxist usurper!
when you’re going to stuff the ballot box, you want to insure the political expectations are that it will be a close race
how the hell can it be ‘close’?? 15%+ unemployment... dollar cut in half... family net worth slashed... debt increased 60% in 3 1/2 yrs... multiple wars... massive privacy encroachments... spy drones... military undermining.... national security fiasco... massive dumping of classified information into the public sector... fast & furious as well as cash walker scandals... fraudulent documents and fraud on the American people...
the list goes on
More tautological nonsense. It’s over except for those for whom it’s not over. Duh!
Lord of the Flies.
By far the worst GOP nominee in history. It's simple.
“Received an automated phone survey last week and was asked if my mind was already made up and if there was a chance I would change it. Suspect if they are doing this across the country they have a good idea of November’s outcome.”
Nope. That’s voter ID. If you are inflexible in your decision, then the R’s want to make sure you vote and the D’s will ignore you.
Agreed. You want a landslide? Promise to shrink the election season to 6 months.
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