Posted on 07/21/2012 9:20:22 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too
Previous Editions:
In this edition of the guide, I am introducing new content and making some alterations to previous content and layout. I am interested in hearing your preferences regarding the Electoral College table.
Regarding the EV table and using the last report's data, previously I was grouping the states into fewer categories (Safe, Leaning, Toss-Up), where Toss-Up included all states within +/- 1%. This time, I added a Strong category to spread out the leans, and pushed the +/- 1% states into Lean (keeping Toss-Up for just tied polls).
The effect of this change is huge. Previously, Florida and Iowa were put into the Toss-Up category, making the deterministic race Obama 247 - Romney 234, and 57 EV up for grabs. With this change, Romney gets the votes for Florida and Iowa, as soft as they are, making the race Romney 269 - Obama 247, and only 22 EV up for grabs.
I'm going to keep the new groups, but let Toss-Up remain all states within +/- 1%, keeping the race at Obama 247 - Romney 234. There is too much probabilistic uncertainty to give these states to one candidate or the other.
I also added my color map of the United States. These maps will change as the poll results change. Eventually, I will add an animated GIF to show the poll progressions from week to week.
This Editions's Updates:
Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
Rasmussen has slowed down his key-state polling, so there has been little movement in the past month -- until this week. At this point, my deterministic analysis of Rasmussen's polls has the race at Obama 265 and Romney at 216, with 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs.
Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, which have moved the race in Obama's direction.
In Florida, the poll result was the same as the previous poll, leaving the race at +1% for Romney. Florida is still a toss-up.
In Ohio, Romney lost 1% from the early June poll, while Obama gained 3%, netting +2% for Obama and moving Ohio from Leans Romney to Leans Obama. Losing Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes hurts.
In Pennsylvania, the news is slightly better, although not consequential. While Obama is still leading, Romney gained 3% from the late May poll while Obama gained 1%. Romney reduced the gap from -6% to -4%. Pennsylvania remains in the Strong Obama column, but is trending towards Lean.
In Virginia, we see another Romney slip. Obama polled the same as in early June but Romney lost 1%, going from a tie to -1%. Virginia is still a Toss-up.
Watch List:
Summary of Electoral College breakdown
| Obama - 265 | Romney - 216 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Toss-Up | Leaning | Strong | Safe | |||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 55 | California | 16 | Michigan | 18 | Ohio | 9 | Colorado | 15 | North Carolina | 16 | Georgia | 9 | Alabama |
| 7 | Connecticut | 4 | New Hampshire | 29 | Florida | 10 | Wisconsin | 11 | Indiana | 3 | Alaska | ||
| 3 | District of Columbia | 20 | Pennsylvania | 6 | Iowa | 11 | Arizona | ||||||
| 3 | Delaware | 13 | Virginia | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 4 | Idaho | ||||||||||
| 20 | Illinois | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
| 4 | Maine | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||
| 10 | Maryland | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||
| 10 | Minnesota | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||
| 14 | New Jersey | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||
| 5 | New Mexico | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||
| 6 | Nevada | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||
| 29 | New York | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||
| 7 | Oregon | 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||
| 4 | Rhode Island | 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||
| 12 | Washington | 38 | Texas | ||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||
| 5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||
| 207 | 40 | 18 | 57 | 25 | 27 | 164 | |||||||
2008 Final Results
Current State Leanings
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Electoral College P10 |
GOP Electoral College EV |
GOP Electoral College P90 |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 Election | 180 | 180 | 180 | 0.00% |
| 12-May-12 | 193 | 220.73 | 248 | 0.16% |
| 19-May-12 | 197 | 225.09 | 248 | 0.23% |
| 26-May-12 | 206 | 232.72 | 256 | 1.21% |
| 02-Jun-12 | 216 | 242.46 | 266 | 4.43% |
| 09-Jun-12 | 221 | 247.73 | 275 | 14.02% |
| 16-Jun-12 | 230 | 257.37 | 282 | 28.95% |
| 23-Jun-12 | 231 | 257.92 | 282 | 30.10% |
| 30-Jun-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 07-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 14-Jul-12 | 225 | 254.58 | 282 | 24.61% |
| 21-Jul-12 | 219 | 248.33 | 276 | 16.46% |
State Details
Colorado (9 EV)
Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.
At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.
Florida (29 EV)
Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has polled Florida twice so far, getting the same result of Romney ahead 46% to 45%.In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.
Georgia (16 EV)
Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.
Indiana (11 EV)
Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.
Iowa (6 EV)
Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.
Michigan (16 EV)
Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. Another poll would be useful to see what direction Michigan is trending.
A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.
Missouri (10 EV)
Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here.At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.
Montana (3 EV)
Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.
Nevada (6 EV)
Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. It is still strongly in Obama's camp, with an early poll showing the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is at the edges of the margin of error, making it almost a certainty that it will vote for Obama again, unless a new poll suggests otherwise.Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.
New Hampshire (4 EV)
New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.in 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.
North Carolina (15 EV)
North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. The latest poll in June has the race closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%.In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.
Ohio (18 EV)
Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama. This week's poll has Romney slipping and Obama gaining, flipping the lead to Obama 47%-45%.Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.
Pennsylvania (20 EV)
Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead. This week's poll show Obama gaining back 1%, but Romney gained 3%, netting an additional 2% loss for Obama.In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.
Virginia (13 EV)
Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far. This week's poll gained nothing for Obama, but Romney lost 1% from early June.A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.
Wisconsin (10 EV)
Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll now shows Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama.In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.
And in the Senate...
Things are finally moving in the expected direction with the potential pick-up of two more seats. The Republican lead is solidifying, and chances of taking control are almost assured.
This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.
The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.
Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.
In Florida, Connie Mack completely turned around an early May poll against Bill Nelson, reversing 36%-47% loss into a 46%-37% lead. The race is still beyond the margin of error, but now the other way.
In North Dakota, we see another beyond-the-margin-of-error flip-flop. The 2006 Senate race went for the Democrat 68.8% to 29.5%. The current race has Republican Rick Berg leading Democrat Heidi Heitkamp by 49% to 40%.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown picked up an additional 1% over Republican Josh Mandel, likely keeping the seat for Democrats.
In Virginia, Republican George Allen gained an additional 1% over his early June result, while Democrat Tim Kaine remained at his prior result, making this race a toss-up at Kaine 46% to Allen's 45%.
Watch List:
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 Election | 47 | 47 | 47 | 0.00% | 0 |
| 12-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
| 19-May-12 | 50 | 51.24 | 52 | 77.01% | 4 |
| 26-May-12 | 49 | 50.75 | 52 | 58.53% | 3 |
| 02-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.63 | 52 | 54.34% | 3 |
| 09-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
| 16-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.37 | 52 | 44.50% | 3 |
| 23-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 30-Jun-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 07-Jul-12 | 49 | 50.05 | 52 | 34.52% | 3 |
| 14-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.04 | 54 | 91.10% | 5 |
| 21-Jul-12 | 51 | 52.19 | 54 | 92.42% | 5 |
-PJ
Doesn’t this essentially ignore the 2010 elections which were a decisive rejection of The Disaster? Not that we shouldn’t assume the worst, given the utter stupidity of the American people.
Not seeing the baseline change after the conventions would mean that the people are ignoring the wave of 2010.
-PJ
I never want to be overly optimistic with this electorate but there would have to be massive schizophrenia for The Disaster to win after the shellacking the RATs took. Nothing has changed to make him MORE popular since then.
And big gains for the GOP in the Senate is coupled with his victory? It makes no sense.
Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin.
The Senate gains are in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. But losses might happen in Maine and Massachusetts.
Different trends weighted in different ways.
-PJ
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