I think there’s a difference between being ‘optimistic’ (too strong a word, for me) and sensing a possible route which avoids total chaos, Egypt-style. As I said, Muslim-brotherhood rule, and all its associated horrors, is indeed a possibility for Syria. But unlike Egypt, I don’t think it’s the only one.
I’d simply base this on my own experience of the year I spent living there, compared to almost all the other Islamic countries I’ve spent extended time in (Morocco, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Mauritania and the Emirates). Extremist, ‘Islamist’ opinions were treated with the scorn they deserve by more Syrians I discussed such issues with, than is the case in many ‘Christian’ Western European countries today. Unlike anywhere else in the ME, I could go out for a drink with a mixed group of both Muslim and Christian Syrian friends, and religion (unlike politics) could be discussed freely and without rancor. Often, it wasn’t clear to me whether various friends or colleagues I had there were Christian, Muslim or even something else.
Syrians seemed to have a unity about them, a shared pride in their cultural heritage, which was separate from, and not entirely dependent upon, Islam: something I don’t think I could say about any other ME country I know well. I distinctly remember a Muslim colleague driving me out to visit one of the old 3rd century monasteries outside Damascus, and the pride he had in sharing this part of his country’s culture with me, entirely separate from his own religion.
But you are right in one respect: it is merely my own opinion, based on my own experience, and it may well amount to wishful thinking. All may indeed fall apart and into chaos: but even so, I’ll shed very few tears for Assad or his lot.
The only additional point I’d want to make is this: yes, there may well be unsavory elements among the Syrian opposition fighting Assad. But there are also many decent, reasonable people in that mix, driven to fight against an evil, tyrannical and repressive government, for the freedom of their families and their country. I think it’s easy to lose sight of that, among all the horror and hatred that swamps the ME today. That may be stating an obvious point that doesn’t need saying. I have to say I saw more to be hopeful about in Syria than I ever saw anywhere else in the region.