My prediction is
Mandate down 6-3 w Sotomayor joining majority
Rest stays 5-4 w Kennedy joining gins, kagam breyer, and soto
I now agree with you. I thought last week that the whole thing would go down 5-4 on both mandate and severability.
Now that Roberts has shown himself not to be a constructionist, it’s anyone’s guess. Who knows what Kennedy’s philosophy is????
I think both he and Roberts have shown themselves to be “politicists” in their interpretation.
The WORST outcome would be to strike down the individual mandate but allow the rest. Individuals would be able to “not buy insurance until they needed it (got sick).” Insurance costs would multiply exponentially, and employers would be forced to stop providing insurance, or go broke themselves.
Since insurance companies would not be allowed to turn these sick people away (pre-existing conditions), the companies would quickly go bankrupt.
With no health insurance companies, and no HMO’s, only the very rich would be able to afford healthcare.
The result would be TOTAL CHAOS chaos for US healthcare. The only remedy would then be total government takeover, massive tax hikes, and ultimately, national economic ruin.
I’m confident that the court realizes this and will strike down the whole thing as unconstitutional.
Then we can implement some common sense incremental healthcare and insurance improvements, such as portability and tort reform.