Obama's camp is divided and appears to be disorganized. Nothing has gone right for them this whole year. In 2008 he was propelled by outside forces, and didn't have to do much of anything but show up. Now, he has to paddle his own canoe and he is revealed as a mere punk.
I continue to believe with increasing confidence that the election is Romney's to lose, and that he won't lose.
I believe Romney is going to trounce Obama for the reasons you mention and because Obama is an awful person and an awful candidate. I'd say he's an awful leader...but then he is in no way a leader.
Even Putin despises Obama!
In fact, Romney will beat Obama so roundly that the only votes Obama will get will be those of his people and the sympathy vote.