Posted on 06/16/2012 4:23:11 AM PDT by safetysign
Why is Barack Obama’s road to re-election so steep and uncertain at this stage?
There are five important reasons.
1. An indefensible record. Every election which features an incumbent is, at least in good measure, a referendum on the record of the incumbent. The problem facing Obama is that he can’t offer a convincing case that his policies have succeeded. Recall that at the outset of his presidency, Obama told NBC’s Matt Lauer, “I will be held accountable. I’ve got four years… If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Yet last October, Obama had to concede to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that “I don’t think [people are] better off than they were four years ago.”
In addition, the main achievements of the Obama presidency – including the Affordable Care Act and the stimulus package – are deeply unpopular. By virtually any measure, then, the president has presided over a failed first term. He cannot reinvent, and therefore he cannot successfully defend, his record.
2. A weakening economy. The Obama campaign rested its hopes on the American economy getting stronger rather than weaker. This would have allowed the president to argue that while things haven’t improved as quickly as Americans had hoped, the trajectory was encouraging, that progress was being made, that the building blocks to prosperity were in place. From there, Obama would say he needed a second term to complete what he (belatedly) started in his first. But the data this year – including dismal economic growth, job creation, and factory orders – have left the Obama narrative in ruins. In the fourth year of his presidency, Obama is presiding over a weak economy that is becoming weaker still. The issue the public cares most about (the economy) is the issue the president is most vulnerable on.
3. Intellectual exhaustion. The Obama campaign is out of ideas. On the economy, Obama has used virtually everything in his progressive toolkit. Nothing has worked. And so the president, unable to defend his record in the first term, is left with no compelling vision to offer in a second term. Witness his speech in Ohio yesterday. It was billed as a “major” address on the economy. But it was widely panned even on the left for being empty and uninteresting. The president himself cannot articulate why his agenda in a second term would be more effective than what he’s done in his first term. He’s running on empty.
4. A formidable opponent. The Obama campaign’s attempt to disqualify Mitt Romney on grounds that he’s too extreme to be president has fizzled. Whatever complaints one may have about Romney, being an extremist is not a plausible one. As Bill Clinton admitted, Romney has been a governor, had a “sterling business career,” and “crosses the qualification threshold.” Since securing the GOP nomination, Romney has made few unforced errors. He’s begun to repair the damage he had sustained. He’s shown impressive discipline and focus as a candidate. He’s outraising the president. And Governor Romney’s campaign is, at least as of now, clearly superior to the president’s.
5. The late break. In most presidential elections, undecided voters break in large numbers for the challenger. If someone is undecided about an incumbent they know well, they will usually cast their ballot for the challenger. That’s particularly true when the country is suffering from economic difficulties and the political fundamentals are bad for the person occupying the Oval Office, which is certainly the case today.
Craig Shirley’s book Rendezvous With Destiny reminds us that 10 days before the 1980 election, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by one point in a CBS News/New York Times poll; and the morning of the presidential debate (October 29), a Gallup Poll reported that Carter had a three-point lead over Reagan. Yet Reagan outdueled Carter in the debate and ended up winning 44 states and defeating Carter by almost 10 points.
I have long believed, and continue to believe, that the durable dynamic in this race will be that a majority of the public, and a large majority of independent voters, (a) consider Barack Obama’s tenure to be a failure and (b) are inclined to vote against him. They are bone weary of his presidency, and they want it over.
The challenge for Mitt Romney is to sufficiently reassure these voters that he’s up to the task of being president and that he would be an improvement over Obama. There have been higher bars to clear in the history of American politics, and at this stage in the race – with less than 150 days to go – the former Massachusetts governor is on course to do just that. Which is why he should be considered the favorite in the race.
now who is being naive???? I wish I could play the Dhimmicrat card and vote early and VOTE OFTEN! and for Romney(and yes I dislike this slime as much as anyone)
nothing, and I mean NOTHING is worse than zer0bama....
Romney is a liberal. I won’t vote for him.
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LOL.... like anybody gives a crap what you do.
He’s a bottom feeder
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Is that the “fish” term or the “Gay” term?
Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, given the opportunity, Obamugabe will appoint Eric Holder to the Supreme Court
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God help us. That one statement almost just scared and sickened me into projectile vomiting.
Americans instinctively know that in his 2nd term, given the opportunity, Obamugabe will appoint Eric Holder to the Supreme Court
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God help us. That one statement almost just scared and sickened me into projectile vomiting.
the real scary part is that the Repukes in the Senate will NOT BLOCK IT...for fear of being called racist.
Obama has made it increasingly clear that he will govern by executive orders and any other end-runs around Congress and the Courts he can think of.
That is the significant difference here. Romney may push things that are not conservative, but there is no indication that he will use made up powers to push his agenda. He will play by the rules because he is competent enough, and respectful enough of America, to do so. Obama doesn’t actually know how and doesn’t think it’s that important.
Romney may have policies that are undesireable, but Obama is a Chavez wanna-be.
They’re not the same.
Exactly Okie... the rational idea is thus... have a President who will work and maybe bend to his Congress and Senate. Romney is the guy. Anyone here that says hey let Obama win and we are subject to 4 more years of hard core kommie krap is not being rational.
If Bill Clinton were running against Obama, I would vote for him. I don’t expect any substantive policy changes either way, nor do I expect a President to advance conservatism (that is the job of Congress) but simply electing a President who does not actively hate and constantly try to destroy white American business owners is essential.
Halfmanhalf is just like any of the other fakes. Their worldview is that if something is said often enough, people will change their mind. He’s not used to debating rationally. He and those like him here to plant seeds of doubt just don’t get it. He probably both wonders why people engage him for such short discussions and thinks he’s getting somewhere. Remember, he isn’t around independent thinkers much it seems.
I guess that means you believe Romney will be every bit as destructive as Obama. I believe he is the lesser of the two evils and that there would be a number of differences that would be better for the Nation. I'm as tired as anyone of voting the lesser of two evils, but I'd rather oust Obama and move on from there. At least Romney understands the concept of Constitutionality. If Obama stays, the only way to take the country back will be for the Nation to rise up and not only would that be disasterous, even if successful, but it is highly unlikely. Once the Left has its way and assumes dictatorial powers, we become a thrid-world Nation and it goes down hill from there. I vote against that and will not waste my vote by casting it for some "real conservative" who cannot win, and whose votes will only serve to put Obama back in office. I know that must sound like crazy talk to you and those who think as narrowly as your statement, but so be it - I'm just crazy...
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Well I said honestly.
You can call yourself whatever you wish, doesn't make it true.
You're like someone who says they hate alcohol and would never touch the stuff then gets drunk every night for 4 years.
You can justify your vote any way you wish.
Call it pragmatism, call it patriotism, say it's for the children, whatever, just don't call voting for a liberal conservatism.
You are what you eat.
I believe that those that feel ( notice I did not use the word think) like Halfmanhalfamazing are a very small minority and reason will prevail in November.
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