Absolutely spot on. Many of the wishy-washy Independents will swing to Romney, and while most of Obama's base will stick with him, you're right about the number of votes being smaller.
I do believe Obama will lose. All the numbers and the simmering anger point to a decisive win for the GOP. I wonder how that will be spun by the libs? America's first black President was an epic failure.
I just pray that nothing catastrophic, like another 9-11, happens between now and Nov. 6 to get the nation to rally around Obama. But then, I’m not even sure that could save his Presidency.