from what i found out its because the Dem has a 51/36 lead with independents.
does anyone know what the actual breakdown is in the state %age wise with reps, dems, inds.
If Berg got 36% of independents, and guesstimating that he got 8% of Democrats, then he got less than 84% of Republicans. Berg needs to get that to at least 90%, as well as increase his share of independents to at least 45%; just doing that would increase his overall percentage to 51%. Hopefully he’ll bring more Republicans home after the primary is over.
To get to 58% of the vote, as I assumed he would get, Berg would need 15% of the Dem vote, 55% of the independent vote and over 93% of the Republican vote. Barring some extraordinary event, I don’t think he can get there.