Rule of thumb: If Walker wins by six points or more, Romney’s the favorite in November

Hot Air ^ | JUNE 1, 2012 | ALLAHPUNDIT

[RobinMasters]

So says John Ellis, writing at BuzzFeed. I’m not sure I believe it but I really want to believe it, and darn it, that’s good enough to justify a post:

Is there any chance that Barrett can pull off an upset? Probably not. If he was leading in the polls, President Obama would be campaigning for him this weekend. The fact that the president is not campaigning for him this weekend means two things: (1) Barrett is behind in Team Obama polling by more than the margin of error, and (2) a presidential appearance would not provide enough of a lift for Barrett to make the difference. So, using the Obama test, Mr. Barrett is a goner.

The key to this election, however, is not really whether Governor Walker wins. More or less everyone expects him to do that. The key is how much he wins by. The crude calculation is this: Walker defeat equals certain Obama win in November. Walker win by 1-5 percentage points equals very close presidential general election (nationally). A Walker win by 6 points or more equals Mitt Romney is the favorite to win in November.

[lacrew]

This whole Walker recall may backfire on the rats...people in Wisconsin are paying attention, more than ever.

And, the more people pay attention, the less likely they are to vote rat.

Wisconsin will definitely be in play...heck, Barry had to campaign in Minnesota today...its not safe either.

[tflabo]

If BarRAT gets a 3 point bump via fraudulent votes then all bets are off—IMHO.

[sbMKE]

College votes will figure into the fall election - they won’t next Tuesday as most students are in finals or in the process of moving.

Walker should get more benefit from this than Barrett will from fraud.

[ari-freedom]

“The key to this election, however, is not really whether Governor Walker wins. More or less everyone expects him to do that. “

I don’t think the unions put in all this effort for a recall only to see Walker re-elected.

[bigbob]

I dunno about his correlation, but Wisconsin will surely be a test of whether the Tea Party and conservatives can rally to offset the media and insider spin and hype. Here's a funny example - note that the store in the background is "Recall HQ"

[SoFloFreeper]

Obama is AFRAID to go into Wisconsin...he knows he faces likely humiliation—on the Martha Coakley scale.

[doc11355]

Pro-Walker Marine vet gets in the mix at Dem rally with Bill Clinton

[lacrew]

That put a smile on my face...and I love that the local news coverage of Klintoon’s rally will include an interview with this guy.

[FreeAtlanta]

Obama's assault on Poland can not be helping Democrats in Wisconsin.

Polish Americans by percentage of the total population

01. Wisconsin 9.65% 02. Michigan 9.59% 03. Connecticut 8.85% 04. Illinois 8.13% 05. New Jersey 7.35% 06. Pennsylvania 7.28% 07. Massachusetts 5.76% 08. Delaware 5.55% 09. New Hampshire 5.29% 10. New York 5.24% 11. Minnesota 5.21% 12. Rhode Island 4.58% 13. Ohio 4.28% 14. Vermont 4.20% 15. Nebraska 3.80% 16. Maryland 3.61% 17. North Dakota 3.07%

18. Florida 2.91% 19. Indiana 2.83% 20. Arizona 2.79% 21. Colorado 2.77% 22. Nevada 2.53% 23. Maine 2.34% 24. Alaska 2.29% 25. Montana 2.29% 26. West Virginia 2.07% 27. Washington 2.06% 28. Virginia 2.00% 29. Missouri 1.93% 30. Wyoming 1.86% 31. Oregon 1.77% 32. South Dakota 1.75% 33. Kansas 1.70% 34. District of Columbia 1.70%

35. Idaho 1.65% 36. California 1.50% 37. North Carolina 1.46% 38. New Mexico 1.35% 39. South Carolina 1.35% 40. Iowa 1.28% 41. Georgia 1.15% 42. Texas 1.15% 43. Tennessee 1.11% 44. Hawaii 1.03% 45. Oklahoma 0.97% 46. Utah 0.96% 47. Kentucky 0.95% 48. Arkansas 0.88% 49. Alabama 0.69% 50. Mississippi 0.64% 51. Louisiana 0.58%

[UB355]

Interesting factoid 32000 absentee ballots were requested in Madison in the 2008 election, this election only 16000 were requested.

[reformedliberal]

A friend reported that on a trip to Milwaukee, she was amazed at all the I Stand With Walker! and Thank You, Governor Walker! signs. In Milwaukee!!

[Atlantan]

That’s probably due to students not being on campus for this election.

[rogue yam]

Any Walker win is good enough for me.

The ‘Rats nationalized the WI situation over a year ago and have been pouring resources into it ever since.

When they lose next Tuesday it will be party time!

[Illuminatas]

Wrong. Walker’s margin of victory will be the nationwide spread of Romney v. Obama.

[Illuminatas]

Wrong. Walker’s margin of victory will be the nationwide spread of Romney v. Obama.

[9YearLurker]

Love that WI tea partier’s grin!

[Atlantan]

Marine vet gets arrested at Clinton’s WI rally.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/scott-walker-supporter-arrested-at-bill-clinton-ra

[Woodsman27]

It will be a positive sign but a lot can happen between now and November and nothing will be assured. I expect the Obama cartel has some real dirty tricks up their sleeves. They know they cannot win based on their record and I expect them to try to destroy Romney with lies and steal electoral votes through fraud.