Op-Ed pieces and polls in May are not predictive of what will occur in November.
Let’s hope the author is correct.
Wayne Root is an outstanding odds-maker and his analysis has some interesting numbers to back up his conclusions.
I hope and pray that the author is correct, but I fear that he is not.
This isn’t hope, this is reality.
The author is pointing out the very realities of the world, and if you dig into the internals of the polls even today, you will see something that has been in every poll for 6+ months.
Simply, Obama cannot beat ANYONE this election cycle. His ONLY shot at winning was for the Republicans to put up someone that could be painted as more scary than Obama. And while Romney is a putz, he cannot remotely be spun as scaryier than Obama.
Obama has a peak, an absolute peak of 42-43%. If he campaigns perfectly he won’t get much above that number, and as his campaign stands right now, he won’t even get that, because he’s not doing everything perfectly.. His campaign is a shambles.. his attacks on Bain capital were nothing more than veiled attacks on capitalism itself, it backfired big time and he’s sticking with it? Why? because he is a socialist and honestly believes most americans are too.. He doesn’t see that he won in ‘08 out ot disgust with Bush, not out of endorcement of him.
He’s not going to win, he’s going to lose support in every major group, with the exception of the socialst/communists. Every other voting demographic he is going to lose points with.. Not only that, but the republican apathy of 08, that led to low republican turn outs, won’t happen this time. Every poll I’ve seen shows the majority of folks are going to crawl over cut glass to vote this fool out of office.
Swing voters that voted for him in 08 by and large realize it was a mistake, and the overwhelming majority are not going to repeat it.
Its not even going to be close on election day, not only that, but i truly believe 60 seats in the senate, is well within reach.
Now hopefully if this does happen, republicans will use that opportunity to undo 60 years of destructive programs that create learned helplessness in people and get this country back on track. Not holding my breath mind you, but I am hopeful.