Normally, I’d write this race off, but perhaps this year is the exception. Sylvestre Reyes was defeated by a controversial opponent. Beto O’Rourke’s past history includes arrests for DUI and burglary. There is a video of him dancing and falling down while singing karoke in a bar.
I’m amazed that O’Rourke was able to win. I can only conclude that Reyes had really overstayed his welcome. The Republican nominee is Barbara Carrasco, an El Paso businesswmoman. Perhaps she can win, like Blake Farenhold won in 2010. Stranger things have happened electorally.
The TX-16 is far less Republican than the TX-27 in which Farenthold beat Ortiz; the latter CD had been carried by President Bush in 2004. But if O’Rourke proves to be not only “controversial” but unpopular with moderate and conservative voters, and if his Anglo name (Robert O’Rourke)appears on the ballot without his nickname and fools some Mexican-American voters into thinking that Barbara Carrasco is the only Hispanic on the ballot, this could actually be a race.
Had Texas Republican redistricters drawn two districts with a bit over 50% of their population in El Paso, one going north to take in those 40%-Hispanic areas around Lubbock and Amarillo and the other going east to take in 40%-Hispanic areas around Midland, Odessa and San Angelo, they could have drawn two 60%+ Hispanic districts that would have given President Bush around 60% of the vote in 2004. That would have allowed the GOP to elect two Hispanic Republicans to Congress from West Texas. Alas, that would have taken ingenuity and risk-taking, two things that Texas Republican redistricters seem to be lacking. It is ridiculous to draw these 80%-Hispanic districts that will cast half as many votes as the next-door 30%-Hispanic districts. Besides, has Republicans drawn more Hispanic-majority districts, they wouldn’t have the courts carving up their maps.