Although the Goldwater campaign and its result are a lot more complex than most analysts can fathom, it wasn't just a simple case of Barry being TOO CONSERVATIVE ~ if anything he was quite in tune with the greater part of the party ~ the Regular Republicans, the Presidential Republicans and the Blue Hairs from Kenosha (the old money from the Midwest ~ his wife was a principal heir for Borg Warner for pete's sake.).
Barry did have difficulty following his own analysis of the electorate, something I've continued to study for another 48 years, but he was on the right path.
He was so absolutely stupendously correct Lyndon Johnson took his analysis to hot and beat him like an egg!
LBJ saw that all he needed to do was hold the Democrat base ~ which he did easily since JFK had been assassinated ~ and slice off a Republican faction.
As you recall 1964 was a big year for Black Civil Rights laws ~ a number had been passed but they wanted improved access to voting in the South. LBJ had delivered for them with the Comprehensive Civil Rights Act of 1964 ~ he promised a voting rights act in 1965 if he were re-elected.
In that one thing he sliced off the remaining black Republican faction in the Republican party permanently ~ all of them! He got the ones in the North, the ones the South, the ones in the West, and the ones who were far more organized in the Northeast and Chicago. ALL OF THEM. And as their numbers grew and they obtained greater access to the ballot box the black vote became more and more important. Where JFK had gotten 70% of a far lower number of black voters, LBJ got 94% of a greater number.
The voting totals for blacks in those days were nothing like they were in 2008, but LBJ got them all, and with that edge ~ a piece of the Social Conservatives inside the Republican coalition, black Evangelicals, abandoned the party and voted for the Democrat~ a notorious letch and drunk!
Goldwater didn't have a chance. He'd also fought the Civil Rights act in Congress in 1964 and that didn't help him, but LBJ's promise for 1965 pretty much sealed the deal.
Now we've got another situation just like that. Romney is the candidate of choice for the Presidential Republicans, the Northeastern Republicans, but not really for the Regular Republicans (the folks who take care of down-ticket electioneering0. He is also the candidate of choice for the Kenosha Blue-Hairs! (In this case quite literally, since Romney's old man was the President of the predecessor company to much of SE Wisconsin's industry, American Motors, headquartered in Kenosha).
All that's missing is a piece of the Republican party share of the Social Conservatives who will go to the Democrats, or who will simply not vote.
I suspect they will not vote for Romney, and it'll look like 1964 all over again.
Karl Rove will blame it on the anti-gay Social Conservatives who didn't show up to vote. So will everybody on FOX, and on National Review On Line, and on National Review, Spectator, Cato, Commentator, Human Events, etc.
My price for political advice will increase substantially after the election
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