“This is very early in the campaign process for an incumbent president to be significantly behind in polling.”
Hmmm. Probably true for dem incumbents. They have had three years of adulatory media. The negative stuff doesn’t start hitting the general public until R’s start buying time on TV. OTOH, R incumbents are frequently down substantially at this point. I think W was polling considerably behind John Kerry about now. That’s because W had, at that point, had three years of unremittingly negative press.
It’s the timing of the negative campaign that causes this difference. It’s constant against R’s. It only happens to D’s in year four.
I agree it is worse for Republicans because, as you say there is a lap-dog, slobbery press, building up dem presidents. Especially with the current Occupant ... everything he does is “historical!” and “unprecedented”.
Also, polling is biased, the pollsters usually attribute more democrats to the polling sample than are really in the population.
Which is all the more reason to be surprised at O-Blame-Bush’s negative numbers. He has taken a true 5-10% hit with his gay marriage stance. He’s getting Hollyweird money for it but I believe he’s lost a lot of votes.