[Political Junkie Too]

This is the initial run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

I'll begin by listing the states that have recent polls, and then list the states that are still within the margin-of- error.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins here.

Below are the first round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result. "No Poll" means the state's last final election vote is within the default margin of error (4.5%). For incumbants, the seat will be considered safe until a new poll is taken.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: -6% (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Florida 2: -2.1% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Massachusetts 1: -6.9% (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: +1.7% (R +7%)
• Montana 2: +4.7% (R +10%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nebraska 2: +18.9% (R +22%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Nevada 1: -4.4% (R +11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• New Mexico 1: +12.7% (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: -2.8% (R -3%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -3.2% (R +1%)
• Wisconsin 2: +20.5% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4

-PJ

[NE Cons]

Good analysts, but unless you’re using state polls that are all more recent, these stale polls don’t reflect reality....