“I am really interested in the Ohio polls.”
You are right, nice to have a lead nationally, but its those state polls that will tell the true story.
Yes, you know you’re in the company of politics junkies when questions and comments like yours are getting asked and made.
There are a lot of really encouraging signs this week. The WV, NC, IN, and WI primaries all had them.
Only up to a tipping point. If the election were held today, a 50-43 pv for Mittens translates into an electoral landslide without regard to state-by-state polling -- the red states simply don't have enough voters to electorally account for such a robust defeat of Bobo ie Mittens would pick up many Blue states if that many Dogs sat on their hands at 43.
Not unironically, something like the 50-41 Reagan-Carter pv, albeit electorally it would be a bit closer than that 489-49 EV thrashing. More like 360-178, which is probably Mitten's limit, picking up outlier states like Maine, etc.
Now, you get a tight pop vote race, like 48-47 (Gore-Bush), different story. Absolutely state-by-state polling is the key in that instance.