Posted on 05/09/2012 2:44:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There’s a new rule in American politics: Republican senators and Senate hopefuls who are too close to Washington and show streaks of moderation are toast — or most certainly poised for a grilling of their lifetime.
Call it the Mike Castle rule. Or the Bob Bennett rule. Or, now, the Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) rule of politics.
Lugar’s Tuesday night blowout loss to Richard Mourdock is shocking to longtime fans and friends, but it’s hardly surprising to any student of Republican races in 2010 and 2012 — and to the 13 GOP senators taking stock of what all this means for them in 2014.
“It’s the environment we’re living in right now,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, chairman of the Republican Conference, told POLITICO. “There are lots of folks who are watching every member’s voting records; you’re not only going to be attacked by your opponent on the Democrat side, but there are obviously Republicans out there who may not like when you’ve been around a few years and you got a lot of votes.”
There are some notable exceptions to the Lugar rule — like Republican Sens. Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Bob Corker in Tennessee, who are skating by their primaries despite having a reputation as deal makers. And Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg, a tea party favorite, may very well lose in next week’s Senate primary.
But there is no denying that any member who breaks even episodically with conservative orthodoxy could face a serious primary, like Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch; flee the Senate before a potential intraparty fight, such as Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe; or see their careers ended in an embarrassing loss before they even get to the general election,like Lugar, Bennett and Castle.
And that means GOP incumbents are already preparing for 2014 challenges from the right to avoid pulling a Lugar of their own. Several senators are raising more money quicker, going home more often and setting up more robust campaign infrastructures well ahead of the usual schedule.
“I know we’ll have a primary,” Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) said of his 2014 bid for a third term.
Many of Lugar’s problems appear unique to his own race — he hasn’t lived in Indiana since 1977 — and some Republicans are quick to blame his struggles to running a flat-footed campaign.
“Basically, it’s the ABCs of politics: Stay involved; communicate with your constituents; be prepared to embrace a 21st-century campaign,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said, assessing Lugar’s problems.
“And own a house,” he added.
Yet despite his local problems, Lugar also couldn’t escape the reputation of being everything the tea party movement hates: a disconnected establishment Washington type known for making deals and occasionally breaking with the party.
Witnessing Lugar’s mistakes, Republicans are doing whatever they can to avoid appearing out of touch, stepping up their public appearances back home, rubbing elbows with local party activists, marching in parades and ramping up fundraising in the event they have to take out prospective primary challengers.
“I think everybody should pay attention to that,” said Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.), who will be up for a second term in 2014. “People want to see you [back home]. I just don’t think you can ever forget how important that kind of thing is.”
On the fundraising front, some of those who could emerge as top targets in either primaries or general election campaigns in the next cycle have been moving behind the scenes to rack up huge bank accounts at a much faster clip than previous cycles.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) already has amassed $5.1 million in the bank, more than double his haul from a similar period six years ago. Same goes for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), whose $1 million in the bank is more than triple the amount he had through the first quarter of 2006.
Graham’s $3.9 million in the bank smashes the $1.9 million in cash he had last time he was up, and Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s $721,000 haul is more than double the amount she had at a similar point in the 2006 cycle.
But it’s not all about hoarding money. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who is 76, says he’s traveling across all 105 counties in Kansas in advance of his 2014 bid. Chambliss has been spending virtually every weekend traversing the state and has been selling his work to cut the budget deficit even if it tramples on the GOP’s anti-tax mantra.
“I’m not going to change my method of operation just for the sake of a primary opponent,” Chambliss said. “But obviously, you’re cognizant of things back home.”
Alexander, a longtime political figure back home, marched in the Mule Day parade in central Tennessee in March — where he sported his quintessential red plaid shirt — and he still travels the state playing the piano in local symphonies in Memphis, Jackson and Knoxville.
“Senators who stay closely connected to people at home are senators who are usually able to be reelected,” Alexander said.
Through his six terms in office, Lugar time and again has skated into office, winning every race for the past three decades with at least two-thirds support. He relied on his elder statesman status within the Hoosier State, deep knowledge on foreign policy issues and willingness to work across the aisle as his ticket to reelection time and again.
Brushing aside advice from party leaders to tear down his opponent, state treasurer Mourdock, Lugar was slow to respond to the criticism from the right, namely over his votes to confirm President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominees, support for the Wall Street and auto bailouts, penchant for earmarking and backing of the president’s nuclear arms treaty with Russia.
And Lugar was badly bruised through weeks of bad headlines over his failure to live in the Hoosier State for 35 years, instead keeping his residence in Virginia and staying in hotels when conducting official business back home.
It wasn’t until late in the game when Lugar began a scorched-earth campaign to tear down Mourdock.
“The story is play offense, not defense,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who tore down his primary challenger, J.D. Hayworth, in 2010. “And it ain’t bean bag.”
For Republican leaders, the story is also about engaging voters early and often — even if your race is years away.
“Part of it is anticipating the challenge and getting prepared for it, both in terms of fundraising and in terms of going home and making sure your constituents know who you are and know you’re up here fighting the good fight on their behalf,” said John Cornyn of Texas, head of the Senate GOP’s reelection efforts and a 2014 candidate himself.
McConnell — the wily Republican leader and top 2014 target for Democrats — is heeding such advice. A cutthroat tactician, McConnell is home virtually every weekend, tailgates at local football games, has traveled to 70 Kentucky counties in about a year and has developed deep opposition research files against his prospective opponents.
Asked if McConnell is susceptible to a tea party challenge, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) deadpanned: “Probably not.”
Other senators who are up for reelection are beginning to take stock in their own fates, as well.
The third longest-serving GOP senator, Thad Cochran of Mississippi, who took office in 1978, said that he travels back to his state about 18 times a year. Asked if he was concerned about a primary given his ways as an earmarker and long tenure in Washington, Cochran noted he’s never “faced serious” opposition in his time in office.
But the senator, who hasn’t spent much time fundraising for himself, was coy about whether he’d run in 2014: “I have not made any plans one way or the other.”
‘Tis a shame!
During (to some extent) and after Bannockburn, the Scottish Nationalist war leader under Robert the Bruce (the new William Wallace) was the dispossessed knight Sir James (The Black) Douglas. In his generation, the land-grubbing Scottish nobles and sellouts included one Sir John Cornyn (must have been an ancestor of the Texas Senator, no?). Senator Cornyn richly deserves defeat as well. Defeat Dewhust with Cruz this year and go after Cornyn next time.
Sen. Lindsey Graham is a RINO..let alone a CINO.
McCain???? God help us if that moron keeps getting elected.
Luger needed to be gone...just like Bennet. And he whined JUST LIKE BENNET. I've zero sympathy for these guys.....
They just don't FREAKING get it!!
Hatch is done. Graham is done. To name just two.
You probably have to be realistic about those states though. Can anyone more conservative than them get elected there? The key to me is that those names don’t show up as going to the liberal/Democrat side on any close vote losses for us. You can say that about Lugar who was one of a handful of Republicans voting for Obama’s Supreme Court noms, where we could have filibustered if Republicans stayed united. I’m not going to worry about how they vote in states like that if it isn’t a close call or we didn’t need their vote. Like Scott Brown on Obamacare, the best we can hope for from a state like Massachusetts is someone who will be the deciding vote for our side when it really counts.
You couldn't be wrong on more levels. Dubya was a tax-cutter and a strong social conservative on abortion and gay marriage. Romney is neither. McCain understood the military and was also socially conservative on major issues. Romney isn't. Romney has shown he's not very smart. He just memorizes consultant talking points and doesn't understand a thing about any of the issues. When he has to decide something on his own off the cuff, he's a default liberal by nature of being a classic limousine liberal and living in a deep blue state. They live in a bubble and don't understand the first thing about conservatism. Romney has shown he will NOT fight Obama, but will cave in the minute it looks like the public is on Obama's side. And everyone knows the Congress will rubber stamp whatever Romney wants to do. That's what RINOs did under both Bush administrations, and they made more concessions to the left to get their votes if they needed them because the handful of true conservatives balked. You're living in a fantasy world and projecting wishful thinking onto a candidate who is nothing that you would like to pretend he is. Deal with reality, because only then can you possibly come up with the right strategy for fighting the problem.
I'd gather, Allen West...could tell us a thing or two.
-PJ
Grahamnesty wouldn’t know the first thing about properly representing the people of SC! I can say with NO DOUBT that he will face a primary in 2014......I only hope the good people of SC will send McCAIN’s RINO buddy packing..
I don't know that for sure.
But it figures.
Chambliss never was conservative. He was a huge supporter of the Bush / Kennedy Ammesty mess in ‘06. So was Johnny Isakson.
“I am praying for the opportunity to vote against Chambliss in a primary.”
He's got a history....and I don't need to list it all here.
Orrin should be put to pasture. Period.
Stay nervous, RINOS.
We are working on it. I am doing some volunteer work for Liljenquist’ campaign.
I have often compared the “leaders” of the myriad corrupt money-grubbing, vote-gathering faux “conservative” Republican satellite organizations to the Scottish nobles of which you speak. The shoe fits them perfectly.
AMEN! McConnell is our version of Lugar and very much part of the problem in Washington. He wreaks of the nauseating stench that is the GOPE.
I hope Sen. Paul and the tea party can find a candidate to run against this backstabbing turncoat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.