Posted on 05/08/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by xzins
The first USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll since the GOP settled on moderate former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as its presumptive Presidential nominee shows an interesting dynamic for Romney and the GOP.
After the Republican Party nominated one of the most moderate candidates in the field, enthusiasm for Romney is down among self-identified GOP moderates and Romney’s likely victory or defeat now hinges on “swing states” where Tea Party backed candidates made strong showings in the 2010 Tea Party wave election.
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin are the swing states Romney needs to win to be elected. Key states, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida that contributed to Obama’s 365 to 173 electoral vote blow-out of the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008 are in play at this time – barely.
Evidence of Romney's problem in Tea Party influenced states is that while Tea Party and conservative-backed office holders are solidifying their popularity, he does not seem to be benefiting from their popularity.
In the state of Michigan, one of Romney’s “home” states where he narrowly won the Republican primary. Romney’s post-primary approval fell and he trails Obama by 6 points or more – Democratic polling firm PPP has Obama leading Romney by 16 in Michigan.
In contrast, Obama’s job approval rating has gone up from 42 percent in September to 50 percent today, and his disapproval rating has dropped from 50 percent to 45 percent.
Michigan's Tea Party backed Governor Rick Snyder's approval rating of 38 percent in September has now hit 50 percent in the state. The Governor's disapproval rating is now down to 36 percent, compared to 46 percent in September.
Tea Party backed Florida Governor Rick Scott, whose “shakeup Tallahassee” agenda cost him some popularity as he made tough calls on the budget, has gone up 10 points recently and is now at 43 percent, statistically the same as Obama’s 43 percent. Romney’s multi-million dollar carpet bombing of Newt Gingrich in Florida gained him exactly 1 point over Obama to place him at 43 percent.
In Pennsylvania, after Rick Santorum dropped out, Romney didn’t run his usual barrage of negative ads. According to the Quinnipiac poll, Romney actually lost five points while running virtually unopposed in the Pennsylvania primary, and now trails Obama 47 percent to 39 percent.
Since March, Obama has gained two points while Romney lost three. Despite campaigning in the state, Romney still has a negative approval rating, with only 35 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving. Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is 51 percent approve to 43 disapprove.
The states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, were three of the top states where the Tea Party wave swept new constitutional conservative members into Congress. In Florida, four of the seven new Republicans were elected with significant Tea Party support, in Ohio the Tea Party backed candidates contributed five freshmen to the House Republican ranks, and in Pennsylvania four out of the five new Republicans in the delegation were elected with strong Tea Party support.
As Gallup noted, this enthusiasm gap is hurting Romney, “Obama's swing-state prospects also look a bit brighter than Romney's on the basis of voter enthusiasm. More than half of Obama's supporters, 55 percent, are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in this year's presidential election, up from 49 percent saying this in March. By contrast, 46 percent of Romney's supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic, unchanged from 47 percent in March. Today's figures reflect a reversal from January, when 55 percent of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 50 percent of Obama voters.”
In most of the so-called “swing” states, the recent progress made by the GOP has been powered by Tea Party enthusiasm and Tea Party backed candidates. Unfortunately for Romney, while liberal and moderate support for him has predictably waned, the Tea Party enthusiasm that has been winning elections for the GOP in those key “swing states” has yet to rub-off on him.
lol
no one except for the Mormons and the RINO’s were ever excited about Romney!
Everyone voted for him because they once again believed the big lie spread by the media that only a “moderate” could win.
*sigh*
Stop with the “RINO” stuff....that IS what Republicans are. Reagan was a brief respite, but this has always been what the Republican Party has been about.
I will too but I won't vote for Romney. Voting for Anybody but Obama does not have to come down to voting for Romney only.
Enthusiasm? What’s that? Oh, yes, that sense of optimism and exhilaration that I was feeling thanks to the combo of the almost-concurrent appearances of Palin and the Tea Party movement. The first time I really fully experienced that since those early, heady days of Reagan.
Nope, Romney and the GOP-e pretty much killed all that, this past year. Totally suffocated it. It’s really amazing when I think about it. The entirity of it, that is. After 15 years of viewership, I’ve stopped watching FoxNews. After 12 years, I’ve stopped visiting Drudge. Just about stopped listening to talk radio. My three-decade status as a news/political junkie seems to be coming to a virtual end. There just doesn’t seem to be any point anymore. That’s the legacy of Romney and this election season for me.
“I’m not enthusiastic about Romney, but I couldn’t be more enthusiastic about voting Obama out.”
Exactly right! I would vote for a dog turd enthusiastically if it meant an end to Obama’s Presidency.
The story is from late last year but I didn’t see it till yesterday but one of the 4 votes to change Michigan delegate allocation rules got in trouble for using fake RNC stationary to push the national popular vote. This is our former GOP chair in Michigan. I’ll bet Mitt has big plans for Saul Anuzis. Mitt sure has run as if he were practicing for the national popular vote. He ignored the conservative areas and ran in Obama strongholds.
So. I hope you turn out to vote for all conservative candidates down ticket. We need and will get a huge turnout this election, which is why I think Obama will lose big.
The Robamany’s are both Socialists. The real Socialist wins and it ain’t Mittens.
In a related story:
Romney: ‘I’ll take a lot of credit’ for auto industry success [bailout]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2881308/posts
Is it any wonder about the enthusiasm gap?
If that doesn't make you an enthusiastic supporter of the lurching bolt-neck, I don't know what will.
I've been a Freeper long enough to read all the posts before adding my own. And you, you rotten sonofagun, you stole my line! I will proudly crawl beside you in November...
Yes, I intend to. Our victory lies in taking the Senate and holding the House. I expect the GOP presidential candidate will win but I don’t expect him to lead. I vow to fight him every step of the way. Romney is an FDR Democrat at best.
So will I! Oust The Obamanation
Any yet today, Rasmussen, using LIKELY VOTERS IN HIS POLL, has Romney 49% and the halfrican, communist, mooselimb, prick at 44%... very strange.
But xzins, you would never look for a poll that slants things in your slanted direction, eh?
Why don't you use the poll results from moveon.org, they really have obama winning, and that should make you very happy.
MOOK.
Except on Free Republic. :(
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