Posted on 05/08/2012 6:54:16 AM PDT by xzins
Tuesday's primaries are three of the nine contests in the 2008 and 2012 cycles held when the presumptive GOP nominee and Ron Paul were the only active candidates left in the race
While the most closely-watched contest on Tuesday may be the Indiana Republican U.S. Senate primary battle between six-term incumbent Dick Lugar and Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, there will still be a few things to keep an eye on at the top of the ticket in the Hoosier State, North Carolina, and West Virginia.
For these three presidential primaries will be the first in which Mitt Romney faces only one opponent on the ballot who has not yet suspended his campaign - Texas Congressman Ron Paul.
Paul's campaign has had a bit of a resurgence of late, with strong showings in the delegate selection phase in caucus states like Iowa, Minnesota, and Maine.
The primaries on Tuesday in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will be a good test both of Mitt Romney's popularity at this stage of the campaign vis-à-vis John McCain in 2008, as well as Ron Paul's own base of support.
These three states, along with the upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota, each also featured two-man races in 2008 with McCain and Paul.
And so, with Congressman Paul's support significantly higher this cycle throughout the primary season, as well as voters not coalescing around Romney's campaign compared to other presumptive nominees in Republican Party history, expect more scrutiny over Romney's ability to turn out the GOP base in November if he fails to receive at least two-thirds of the vote Tuesday.
Only one of the remaining 12 primary states, Montana, is in classic "Ron Paul country" - the Texas congressman has excelled in both cycles in northern border states - although he also may perform particularly well in Oregon and South Dakota in the coming weeks.
So how much of a boost can Paul expect to receive in his one-on-one challenge against the former Massachusetts governor?
In 2008, Congressman Paul averaged 7.4 percent in the 41 state primaries and caucuses held before Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race on March 4th - leaving the field open to just McCain and Paul.
That left just two active candidates in the race (with the occasional ex-candidate still lingering on the ballot) for the remaining 12 contests.
Paul averaged 12.4 percent of the vote in those dozen primaries, or an increase of only 5.0 points when he had a one-on-one matchup against John McCain.
In 2012, Paul has averaged 15.7 percent of the primary and caucus vote through the first 37 contests (excluding U.S. territories).
Representative Paul has at least doubled his percentage of vote received from 2008 to 2012 in nearly half of these contests (17 states): Ohio (+100.0 percent), Arizona (+104.8), Iowa (+114.0), Florida (+118.8), Georgia (+127.6), Wisconsin (+138.3), Delaware (+152.4), New York (+153.2), Missouri (+171.1), Oklahoma (+190.9), New Hampshire (+197.4), Connecticut (+221.4), Massachusetts (+251.9), South Carolina (+261.1), Rhode Island (+266.2), Vermont (+283.3), and Virginia (+800.0).
That includes double-digit improvements on his 2008 tally in seven states: Iowa (+11.4 points), Maine (+17.8), New Hampshire (+15.2), Rhode Island (+17.3), Vermont (+18.7), and Virginia (+36.0).
The only two states in which Paul has received a lower percentage of the vote in 2012 compared to 2008 are Idaho and Pennsylvania.
However, when Paul won 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania in 2008, he was the only active candidate in the race other than McCain. Paul fell just shy of that mark in April with 13.2 percent with Gingrich still officially in the race tallying 10.5 percent.
The same is true in Idaho, where Paul and McCain were the only candidates on the primary ballot in 2008 when he notched 23.7 percent of the vote. In the 2012 Idaho caucuses, Paul was one of four active candidates on the ballot when he won 18.1 percent.
In Tuesday's primary states four years ago, Paul only received 7.7 percent in Indiana, 7.2 percent in North Carolina, and 5.0 percent in West Virginia.
I live in the WV panhandle and am suffering voter malaise. Most of the local elections involve democrat against democrat. We’re dominated by unions around here... I’ll definitely vote in the presidential election for whatever Republican (even Romney) who is running, but I’m not sure I’m going to go stand in line to vote in this primary. Initially I liked Cain, then Gingrich.
Romney lost to the guy who lost to Obama, so I have no idea why anyone would be confident that he can beat Obama. And the election for President is 50 separate elections, not a Rasmussen national tracking vote, so being up by 5 in May is less than meaningless. You’d think after Florida people would understand that.
I wonder how much of that vote was cast before Santorum announced his withdrawal.
You won’t have to stand in line, since nobody will be at the polling place, and so your vote will count that much more.
“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”
Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)
“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”
Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)
“Vote Romney to defeat Obama.”
Vote Romney to give Obama a second term using a different face! (There......fixed it.)
I just voted this morning in our primary. I voted for Newt. Deny the liberal any more votes.
Lots of folks around here were saying that a couple of weeks ago right before Romney went 5 for 5 including NY and PA.
Same here in West Virginia. I voted for Santorum to make sure that Mitt knows that there are some conservatives out here that aren't happy with him.
I would not vote for Ron Paul because of his screwed up notion about wanting to fight the terrorist over here instead of over there. His foreign affairs ideas are out to lunch. Anyone who would vote for Ron Paul would likely vote for the Libertarian candidate in November which would hand the election over to Obama.
I hate to have to do this again (like with McCain), but I'll get a pair of vice grips and hold my nose tightly and vote for Romney in November. Hopefully we can get Sarah or Herman to run against him in the 2016 primary.
Well good luck with your guy. I’m voting for Goode.
LOL so now you all are paulbots? Sad.
So how does it help America for GOP primary voters to show Romney’s weakness today?
How is your strategy supposed to play out?
In Nov. those will be the only two realistic choices.
If you and your liberal friend go to the poll and vote, each candidate advances by one and parity is maintained. If you vote third party or stay home in protest, then Zero advances by one and your vote was wasted.
Fight for the conservative in your local elections and in the primary. But, in the general election the winner will either be the (R) or the (D).
ABOR!
With 600+ delegates remaining, the strategy is to defeat Romney by hook or by crook.
Injure his credibility to throw it to the convention.
Injure his numbers to throw it to the convention.
Do whatever possible to dump the guy!
He’s a radical liberal, pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, anti-gun, pro-big government, pro-obamacare, 3rd way, social corporatist.
I voted early in NC. It was after Newt said he was suspending his campaign. I still voted for him anyway. The big draw is the marriage amendment. Heavy turnout here at my school it looks like. Parking lot is full. This is a pretty conservative district so am hoping all those folks come back in November and vote to swing NC back to a red state. Hippieland (Asheville) is no longer in our district so that should help.
NOT ROMNEY. EVER.
To choose a backstabber, traitor, statist
is like G.W. having made Benedict Arnold POTUS.
NO WAY.
Got back from voting here in NC just a few minutes ago.
NO big lines.
Since everyone in the Prez Primary dropped out except Mitt and Ron - I voted for RP just so Mitt can’t be as smug about winning the GOP nomination.
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