See full poll results here:
http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html
Romney has yet to consolidate the center-right, and might not, and might not have to.
In 1980, with John Anderson, a centrist Republican, and Ed Clark, a libertarian, taking 8 percent of the vote between them, Ronald Reagan, a conservative Republican, still managed to trounce Jimmy Carter, 51 to 41 percent.
There are some differences and some similarities this time. Mitt Romney is a centrist, the Libertarians have a fine candidate (for them) in a former 2-term Republican Governor of New Mexico. The Constitution Party also has a fine candidate, a multi-term Congressman from Virginia (but on how many states, and which states, will he be on the ballot?). Plus, there’s a possibility that Americans Elect will nominate Buddy Roemer, a former Republican Governor of Louisiana, or Rocky Anderson, a former Democratic Mayor of Salt Lake City.
The Democrats will definitely seek to make each of these three candidates viable. I even think they’ll figure things out, and help get them onto the ballot in select states such as Ohio and Virginia.
On the other hand, the Green Party candidate will be a nothing candidate on few ballots.
With continued softness in the economy, it won’t matter. Romney will landslide even with various center-right third party candidates taking significant numbers of votes. (By the way, this is the scenario that is most probable.)
But, should there be a pick-up in the economy, it’s possible the stars will align to the benefit of Mr. Big Ears.