Rasmussen polls likely rather than registered voters and the balance of Democrats, independents and Republicans is a bit problematical with Gallup. Recent polls have shown a trend toward Republicans generically. I would be very surprised if Gallup and Rasmussen agree on this trend.
There are very few undecided voters left to come to Obama's rescue. On a issue level, there is very little reason for voters to want to come to Obama's rescue if Rasmussen has it right. It seems to me far more likely that Rasmussen has got it right than Gallup.
When we look at this election we have to think on two grids, the demographic breakdowns and the geographic breakdown. If you think this is going to be a tight election, ( I do not, I think it's going to break for Romney), it could easily be decided by the demographic of unmarried women in a few counties in Ohio. All the rest of the Gallup polling of registered voters nationwide is of very little value for learning what this pivotal demographic group of unmarried women with children in Ohio will do it November.
By way of another illustration, what will the Hispanic voters in Colorado do? Those voters in that state could turn the entire national election but Gallup does not much help us in understanding the dynamic in a few precincts in Denver. Even if Gallup has anything to say to us about this, what impact would Marco Rubio have on these Hispanics? Will he persuade Mexican-Americans in the Southwest or only Cuban-Americans in Florida and fail to deliver these key precincts? What happens if the vice presidential nominee is Paul Ryan?
We can bloviate according to our ideological bent on these threads but the real professionals are digging into these details and framing their campaigns. If armchair generals worry about strategy and real generals worry about logistics, real professionals worry about a precisely defined set of demographics in pivotal precincts. My opinion, therefore, is not worth much more than anyone else's on this thread but I think I would far prefer to be in Romney shoes at this point than Obama's. When Gallup says that incumbents at the 50% level win, consider that Obama reaching this marker is a very fresh development and could well be temporary. It is flatly contradicted by Rasmussen, it brings Obama only to the 50% level with a 3% margin of error even if Gallup is credited and Rasmussen discounted, and every other indicator in previous elections counts against Obama.
It is a very, very dangerous but a very human proclivity to see things as we would want to see them, to analyze through the prism of our own ideology. We all want to be right in our judgment of Romney and that includes his electibility. It is just as dangerous to wallow in unwarranted pessimism as it is to act the Pollyanna.
