Generally, I agree that likely voters is better than registered voters, but since we are still 6 months away from the election, there will be hundreds of reasons for simply registered to move into the likely camp.
IIRC, likely voter points are given for both voting in the most recent election and responses to questions.
Gallup’s website, for example, says it factors in “prior voting” and “voter intention”. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx
If you didn’t vote in the mid-term or the off-term, then you would lose points there. And if you said TODAY that you’re not interested, that doesn’t mean you won’t be interested in August.
In short, those numbers change the closer you get to an election.
It will come down to but a few states and the debates.... can Mitt slap the smile off Obama’s face when he stands up there and lies becuz u know the media outlets running the debates wont.... I also would factor in where gas prices, housing and jobs are in 6 months...