I don't want to get overconfident but you make some excellent points. To distill what you and others have said on this thread, with respect to Obama, the "magic" of 2008 is gone. Obama conned his way into office on his bogus "hope and change" meme but once in, we all saw what an empty vessel he really is. He's actually worse than Carter.
Yes, he'll get his 40-45% base no matter what. All Democrats do. But I honestly be shocked if he gets higher than 45% no matter who the GOP is running.