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To: TigerLikesRooster

If this much information is already out, then looks like the Bo Xilai faction has already lost. I would have expected a period of silence when nothing comes out for a while before a winner emerges. There was a brief period when this happened (between Wang Lijun’s arrest and last week) but looks like the Hu and Xi JinPing faction has come out on top. What’s your take Tiger?


16 posted on 04/16/2012 2:13:08 AM PDT by MimirsWell (Pganini, cmdjing, andyahoo, artaxerces, todd_hall, EdisonOne - counting my Chicom scalps)
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To: MimirsWell
I think Bo is gone. The laundry list of charges against him is a classic menu for purge, which includes the allegation that Bo and Zhou engaged in sex with 100 women and making video about it(according to Boxun.) However, they do have regional base(especially Bo) and have had substantial number of followers. I wonder if Hu and Xi can sweep out all of them. China is a collection of major regions which are more or less autonomous. You can't clean up an entire region without bloody confrontation. So they could be biding time to strike back.

If economic situation deteriorates and social tensions rise, winds will be blowing in favor of those with the same view as Bo. Xi should get ahead of the curve and become another Bo. This is probably what Hu and Wen try hard to avoid. Time is not on their side, though. There would be backlash against current party elites who monopolized most of China's wealth. They will be dealt with in one way or another. I am not sure Hu and Xi would be up to that task. If they don't, they will be perceived as part of the problem, who getting in the way of so-called "reform."

China is not N.Korea. Central government cannot have strong control over all disparate regions. Only somebody like Mao can do it. There is only so much they can do. If they push too far, they risk civil war.

17 posted on 04/16/2012 7:16:17 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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