As usually happens with these, I have family smack-dab in the middle of the “high” area and lots scattered in the moderate & slight.
We watched part of a Nova about severe weather last night. They talked a lot about warning systems and how to increase lead time, but pointed out that many times even with 10+ minutes of lead time people still don’t seek shelter soon enough. One of the points made was that people in Tornado Alley tend to pay more attention to weather because they’re all too familiar with the dangers, and that results in those areas having lower death tolls even when large population centers are hit.
My grandmother was fascinating when it came to the topic of tornadoes. She could recount more than a half-dozen times she’d been much too close to a twister before there were radars. Knowing how to spot dangerous weather before it happened was just part of life. Although she never graduated from high school, she knew her weather because it meant survival for her and her kids.
But that also is part of human nature - the NWS is damned if they do issue such warnings and damned if they don't. In the end, those who take such things seriously - such as your grandmother - will be far more likely to survive a tornado hit than those who don't take things seriously - such as the folks in NOLA who thought they could ride out Katrina. Much of the time, there is nothing you can do for the second class of people other than pull their remains out of the wreckage afterwards.
In the wake of last year’s tornado disasters in Alabama and Joplin, Missouri, one thing is clear: the “science” of tornado warning is as much about sociology as meteorology. Before hundreds died in those storms, it was widely assumed that we’d never see death tolls on the scale of the 1974 Super Outbreak, or the storm that devastated Flint, Michigan in the early 1950s.
But the experts were wrong; despite 20 minutes of advance warning, more than 150 people died in Joplin. One reason was the power of the storm; when an F-5 tornado plows through a heavily-populated area, people are going to die. However, the death toll might have been lower if people had simply heeded the warnings.
In one case, the Weather Service interviewed a couple who set out for a local restaurant—despite the fact that tornado sirens were blaring. When they discovered the eatery was closed (because of the approaching storm), they headed to another restaurant. They survived because the staff there was also aware of the threat, and moved customers to a place of safety.
Once upon a time, people headed for shelter when a tornado warning was broadcast, or the sirens sounded. Today, folks go about their business, or grab a camera and head outside. That sort of mindset can be deadly.