I think the VP pick will depend on how things look in late August. If Romney is in good shape and looks like he can really win, I suspect he’ll go with either Rubio, Christie or Ryan and it’ll be a real donnybrook between those 3.
But if we get to August and it’s starting to look like a Clinton/Dole scenario and Obama has a solid/steady lead I suspect the party and establishment won’t want to hurt their chances in 2016 by having one of the stars on the bench go down with the ship. A guy like Portman(or Jon Kyl) is perfect in that case. He has no ambitions of his own and no one else does for him and him being part of a losing ticket wouldn’t hurt anyone else going forward and it would leave all the rising stars unscathed and ready for 2016.
In retrospect that was a mistake Palin made by tying herself to McCain. I don’t blame her really and obviously she accepted before anyone had any idea about what was going to happen to the economy in Sept and Oct. If Lehman had collapsed on Aug 15 instead of Sep 15 there’s no way she’d have accepted in my view. It’s interesting to think where she’d be now if she hadn’t taken the VP nod. There are pros and cons for both sides.
But I think it all depends on how things look. It’ll either be a glamour pick like Rubio/Christie/Ryan if Romney really looks like he has a good chance or it’ll be a guy like Portman or Kyl if the party is looking for someone like Jack Kemp in 96 to be a good soldier, take one for the team and get a nice reward for years of loyal service and as a wya to sort cap their career.
If Obama wins, it won’t matter because we won’t have a country in 4 years.