Posted on 04/05/2012 9:01:40 AM PDT by varmintman
Dick Morris' "Lunch" video this morning involves a claim that a realistic reading of today's polls indicate that Romney (or anybody else other than Rick Santorum more or less) will beat Obama very badly. The basic gist is that Obama needs to be over 50% among likely voters at this point to break even and the fact of his being no better than around 45 spells wipeout in November since the undecideds almost never break for an incumbent under such circumstances.
Morris notes that it's as if marriages were five year contracts with options to renew and somebody were to ask your husband or wife at year four if they were planning on renewing, and they said they'd have to think about it...
When is the last time Morris was right about anything?
Uh Oh.... Dicky boy is often very wrong in his predictions....
Truth 100,
Morris 0.
Last time I checked.
WTH data is Morris looking at?
Morris predictions are worthless.
Tell me which of Kerry's states, if any, he's not going to carry. How does he lose them? What groups fade away.
Give me specifics.
But in this case, we're talking about many millions of very dull sheeple who are quite willing to receive abuse so long as they get an occasional freebie thrown their way.
“Uh Oh.... Dicky boy is often very wrong in his predictions....
Yeah. This is what worries me about hearing something Morris says that I agree with. I DO think (most of the time) that 0bama loses big.
Who is Obama going to run against then?
Romney sure the he!! isn’t going to beat Obama!
I agree. In firming up his base, Obama is showing his true nature and alienating moderate middle-class voters. Moreover, many people who say they are leaning to Obama are just giving the politically correct answer, and in the privacy of the voting booth will pull the other lever.
It could be comparable to 1980, IMHO. It doesn’t matter how bad Romney is, people will be voting against the incumbent.
Oh no. Say it isn’t so, Dick.
Many things can happen between now and November. That’s an entire baseball season + the World Series.
Mitt is going in with his obvious problems: low support from Conservatives, RomneyCare and his magic underwear.
Obama is dragged down by ObamaCare, high gas prices, high unemployment, and trillions in new debt.
It’s really a question of who reeks less and how many dead people vote in blue states. The American voter can’t really be trusted to decide based on what is true or prudent.
today’s rasmussen tracking poll (as shown on rcp) shows Romney over obama by 2 nationally, and Santorum under obama by 2 nationally.
Pretty close election either way. At this stage, today, Romney is polling slightly better than Santorum, but Santorum is very much within range. Romney does not have a lock in the “electability” argument with TODAYS NUMBERS. But he does have an advantage over Santorum.
(I am not advocating anything by the above. I’m just reporting the facts and drawing some basic conclusions.
personally, I think obama is the favorite for November....but I would love to be wrong!)
Exactly. Obama has 250+ all but guaranteed EVs before the first vote is recorded. He gets all of Kerry's states, plus NV and probably CO. Romney has about 160. All else will be up for grabs.
If gas prices stay high he will lose many more states, especially rural Midwest states like MI.
Bingo. Most don't have a clue of why certain issues are vital to this country. They keep a narrow view on what puts a couple more $ in their pocket, along with their favorite social cause and focus on those.
So I don’t have to feel bad about not voting for the RINO in November?
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