OK, continuing this hypothetical math of a primary with pure winner-take-all rules, I calculated the final delegate total assuming that Rick and Mitt win the below states. Under those rules, the threshold to win the nomination would be 1,218 delegates. A pure WTA calculation with early WTA penalties removed would give Romney 1,274 delegates according to my calculations. If I took NM and DE away from Romney, he still would win under this system.
It kind of shows how the race is close enough that whoever the winner is is all going to come down to which guy the archaic rules end up favoring. Overall though, I think there is no way to stop Romney now unless he becomes so weakened that he actually loses in his northeastern and West Coast strongholds.
Rick:
TX - 155
PA - 72
NC - 55
MO - 52
IN - 46
KY - 45
WI - 42
AR - 36
NE - 35
WV - 31
SD - 28
MN - 26
Mitt:
CA - 172
NY - 95
NJ - 50
UT - 40
MD - 37
OR - 28
CT - 28
NM - 23
DC - 19
RI - 19
DE - 17
Romney: 1,274
Santorum: 1,032
Gingrich: 126
Paul: 0
To deny Romney the nomination Santorum must win WI, and it would be optimal for him to deny Romney a majority in NY (thus making it proportional) and win several districts there, thus evening the delegate count. This nomination is going to be so close that states like DE could help decide it. Combining denying a majority in NY with winning DE will give Santorum enough of a lift to fight it out to California, where he won’t need to win, but he would need to hold Romney down to around 100-120 delegates or so. Blowing Romney out of the water in places like TX, NC, and KY are also very important in this scheme.
Also to be followed closely are the state convention delegate selections. If the anti-Romney’s unite, Romney might lose upwards of 90 delegates from his current count. WA is especially important on that front. If he gets denied those, Not Romney will have more wiggle room, but they would still need to deny him delegates in primary states.
Thankfully, the May calendar is so heavily conservative that it should give Santorum enough momentum to steal a lot of delegates in CA. During May, Santorum needs to basically camp in CA while sending out his surrogates and some ad money to the conservative states during that time to run up the margins.
Then, we fight on to Tampa.