[SoConPubbie]

Wrong, Romney had about 53% of the delegates as of last week even with only 39% of the vote. It gets easier for him to accumulate more in an imbalanced fashion since many more states will now be winner-take-all, including Puerto Rico, D.C., Utah, Delaware, etc. No predictions can now be made without an extremely careful state-by-state analysis analyzing every single rule in detail. The delegates needed to deny him the nomination are too close now. Nothing but a game-changer like Newt or Rick dropping out or Mitt getting indicted for something can ensure a Romney loss.

The following remaining states are proportional:

1. Louisiana
2. Conneticut
3. New York
4. Pennsylvania
5. Rhode Island
6. North Carolina
7. West Virginia
8. Oregon
9. Arkansas
10. Kentucky
11. Texas
12. New Mexico
13. South Dakota


The following are settled at a State Convention:

1. Illinois
2. Missouri
3. Indiana
4. Nebraska
5. Montana


The following are Winner-take-all:

1. Puerto Rico
2. Maryland
3. Washington D.C.
4. Wisconsin
5. Delaware
6. California
7. New Jersey
8. Utah


So, out of the 26 primaries left, only 8 are winner-take-all, and many of those are very small in total number of delegates.

[trappedincanuckistan]

I thought California was WTA by congressional district? Maybe I don’t understand what that means. What does that mean?

[A_Niceguy_in_CA]

"The following are Winner-take-all:"

1. Puerto Rico
2. Maryland
3. Washington D.C.
4. Wisconsin
5. Delaware
6. California
7. New Jersey
8. Utah

and Romney is ahead in all the above, winner take all states. Rick's best chance is WI with a slim chance at CA if he has the momentum at that time.

Romney must be denied reaching 1144 by being limited to gaining fewer delegates in the proportional states since Mitt has such an advantage in the winner take all states.

[JediJones]

You’re wrong on some of these and this is too important to be spreading misinformation. Almost no one seems to understand the PA, WV, IL system yet. It’s direct, plurality-takes-all by district. If Romney wins every district with a 26-25-25-24 split and he wins EVERY delegate.

I’m not looking at what gets “settled at a convention” either, I’m looking at the votes and delegates. Obviously the party or grass-roots maneuvering will favor Romney or Paul so we need to win those to have any chance.

We have upcoming 622 delegates from just 7 big states with partial winner-take-all where splitting the vote could make the difference between handing Romney hundreds of delegates or not...the first 3 groups below. These are the kind of mixed/moderate states/districts like Ohio and Michigan where vote-splitting WILL kill us.

We have upcoming 228 from pure winner-take-all, where I guess Romney might only lose in Wisconsin for 42. But that’s 42 we might not get with vote-splitting and EVERY DELEGATE COUNTS.

And we have 439 from proportional. If one conservative drops out, we lose nothing here, because all those votes and delegates go to the other conservative instead.

We have EVERYTHING to gain by one conservative dropping out and pretty much nothing to lose.

The types:

Direct delegate election by district. If Romney wins every district in the state with 26-25-25-24 or more, he gets ALL the delegates. The nature of these states shows there is very serious vote-splitting potential to help Romney in these:

Illinois
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
(172 total)

Winner-take-all by district:

California

(172 total)

Election becomes winner-take-all if a candidate meets a certain threshold (usually 50%):

New York
Texas
Connecticut (a mix)

(278 total)

Proportional:

Louisiana
Rhode Island
North Carolina
Oregon
Arkansas
Kentucky
New Mexico
South Dakota
Nebraska
Indiana
Montana
Missouri

(439 total)

Winner-take-all:

Puerto Rico
Maryland
Washington D.C.
Wisconsin
Delaware
New Jersey
Utah

(228 total)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

[TexasFreeper2009]

many of those winner take all states you have listed are not winner take all. They are winner take all by district, which favors Santorum since he gets most of his support from the more numerous rural areas.